MLB Betting Guide for Friday 9/22/23: Revenge of the Knuckle

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

Reds -1.5 (+122)

Andrew Abbott has cooled down after a red-hot beginning to his career (get it, "Red"-hot), but he's well-positioned to lead the Cincinnati Reds to cover as 1.5-run home favorites against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Although Abbott has made it through the fifth inning just once across his last five starts, he still boasts a 3.68 ERA and 4.39 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) for the season. Even with some recent hiccups, Abbot has a 26.1% strikeout rate and sits in the 74th percentile among qualified pitchers with a .224 expected batting average allowed.

Sure, he gives up too high of a hard-hit rate (43.8%), and generating a 29.6% ground-ball rate isn't ideal at Great American Ball Park. However, those concerns are mitigated when you're facing a lineup like Pittsburgh's.

The Pirates have been pitiful against southpaws over the second half of the year. Since the All-Star break, the Pirates have a .291 wOBA (28th in the MLB), .117 ISO (30th), and just a 78 wRC+ (28th). They've struck out at an elevated 24.5% clip in that split and have hit fly balls at the fourth-lowest rate (32.1%), mitigating Abbott's fly-ball concerns.

While we project Abbott for a strong start, some offensive insurance would be nice. Thankfully, the Reds are in a strong spot to put up numbers on Luis Ortiz.

Ortiz has been incredibly hitter-friendly in 2023, pitching to a 4.85 ERA and 5.79 SIERA. His walk rate (12.2%) nearly matches his strikeout rate (13.9%), and he has some truly abysmal batted-ball metrics. Ortiz sits in the league's bottom 1% in hard-hit rate (49.8%) and expected wOBA (.398), and he has given up a 10.2% barrel rate.

Cincinnati hasn't been great on offense over the second half of the year, but they've held their own against righties this month. Since September 1st, the Reds rank around league-average in wOBA (.324), ISO (.184), and wRC+ (97) versus right-handed pitchers.

With a clear advantage on the bump and still possessing an outside shot at the playoffs, the Reds make for a strong runline play tonight.

Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics

Tigers -1.5 (+118)

We're back in on the Detroit Tigers to cover as 1.5-run favorites against the Oakland Athletics today for the same reason we were on them yesterday: pitching. After their 7-2 win in yesterday's opener, the Tigers are well-positioned to cover again with yet another hot young arm on the mound.

That arm belongs to rookie Sawyer Gipson-Long. In addition to being an excellent value play in DFS, SGL (nickname patent-pending) gives Detroit a great chance to cover tonight.

It's a small sample, sure, but the righty looked downright dominant in his first two Major League starts. He allowed just three runs in 10.0 innings of work, striking out a staggering 41% of opposing hitters. He's allowed a measly 20% hard-hit rate in those 10 innings, and after a dominant season in Triple-A, he could very well keep the momentum rolling against a feeble A's lineup.

Across the last month, Oakland has struggled to generate any kind of offense against right-handed pitchers. Over that span, they rank 27th in wOBA (.296) and 21st in wRC+ (90) in the split and have averaged just 3.75 runs per game overall.

That doesn't bode well for the A's chances of covering tonight -- not with Ken Waldichuk on the mound. The lefty was rocked for 6 runs in his previous start and boasts a below-average 4.95 SIERA for the season. He struggles with walks (11.5%) and doesn't really make up for it in the strikeout department (20.6%). Additionally, Waldichuk has allowed a .356 wOBA against righties -- not great considering the Tigers are expected to start seven right-handed batters.

While Detroit's offense hasn't been great in the second half of the year, they've absolutely shredded lefties over the last month. During that span, Detroit ranks third in wOBA (.365), seventh in ISO (.211), and third in wRC+ (134) against southpaws.

With plus odds for Detroit to cover again tonight, we should be all over the visiting Tigers given their lefty splits and pitching advantage.

St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres

Padres -1.5 (+122)

It took five months, but the San Diego Padres finally look like the force many expected them to be prior to the 2023 season.

The Padres have won seven games in a row entering tonight and are coming off a pair of three-game sweeps. They'll have a good chance to extend that winning streak to eight tonight up against a faltering St. Louis Cardinals team.

St. Louis has lost three in a row and five of their last seven. They'll be hard-pressed to stop the bleeding tonight with Dakota Hudson on the bump.

Hudson has given up 15 runs across his last 14.1 innings, inflating his ERA to 5.12 for the season. He's hardly striking anyone out (13.0) and has allowed a generous 46.3% hard-hit rate. Most worrying, Hudson sits in the league's bottom 4% in both expected ERA (6.06) and expected batting average allowed (.287). Additionally, he's been downright dreadful with a 7.62 ERA and 4.17 wOBA away from Busch Stadium.

The Padres should make short work of Hudson given their recent splits. San Diego sits in the top 10 in both wOBA (.332) and wRC+ (113) against righties this month. They've averaged the second-most runs per game (6.06) over that span, and with an outside shot at the playoffs still in play, they shouldn't be messing around.

On the opposite side, San Diego sends out knuckleballer Matt Waldron. Waldon hasn't been great in a limited sample this season but just held the Oakland Athletics to 2 runs in 5.1 innings of work and has notably forced a stellar 21.2% rate of soft contact. His 11.1% barrel rate is far from ideal, but he's kept that under 6.0% in each of his last two outings.

He likely won't face much resistance tonight against a Cardinals lineup that has all but given up on the 2023 season. St. Louis is averaging just 4.32 runs per game this month, posting bottom 10 numbers in wOBA (.302), ISO (.140), and wRC+ (140).

This one comes down to two major components: pitching and desire. It remains to be seen if San Diego has the advantage on the mound, but they surely have more to play for tonight. At this point in the season, that's about all you can ask for, and that's good enough for me to ride them while they're hot to cover as 1.5-run favorites.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.