Madrid Open Betting Picks: Friday 4/26/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
Madrid Open Betting Picks: Friday 4/26/24

The tennis clay season continues as we work our way to the 2024 French Open in late May.

The Madrid Open is underway, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Madrid Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find betting value in Friday's matches? Note that play begins at 5:00 am ET due to a six-hour time difference.

Madrid Open Best Bets

Sebastian Baez vs. Luca Van Assche

Baez -3.5 Games (-112)

Admittedly, it isn't the best feeling to back a favorite who comes in on a losing streak, but if Sebastian Baez plays at his usual level on clay, his talent should win out over Luca Van Assche.

Baez is the definition of a clay specialist, as he owns a career 66% win percentage on the surface while carrying losing records on hard and grass courts. Five of his six titles have come on clay, as well.

Despite entering Madrid on a four-match skid, two of those losses came on hard courts while the other two were back-and-forth three-setters on clay. Overall, Baez has excelled on clay courts this season (14-4), which included picking up two titles in February (Rio de Janeiro and Santiago).

Van Assche turns just 20 years old in May, so he practically still has his whole career ahead of him, but he might not be equipped to handle Baez at this stage. The Frenchman is just 19-29 in his young career and 7-9 in 2024.

It's not like Van Assche comes in on a hot streak, either, as prior to his win in the last round, he had lost four of his last five (including a qualifier).

Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings see Baez as a significant favorite, predicting a 74% win probability. Massey Ratings is even more bullish, granting a 79% chance of victory. In all, this looks like a situation where Baez should be bigger than a -240 favorite, as that implies 70.6% win odds.

This looks like a bounce-back spot for Baez, and this feels like a spread he should cover against an opponent who's barely inside the top 100.

Jaume Munar vs. Jen-Lennard Struff

Struff -2.5 Games (-126)

While both Jaume Munar and Jen-Lennard Struff have been roughly .500 players on clay over their careers, it's still easily the best surface for both. However, recent form decidedly sides with Struff.

Struff is 6-1 on clay this spring with his lone loss coming against Jannik Sinner, perhaps the most frightening opponent on Tour these days. Entering the Madrid Open, the German is fresh off his first-ever career title (Munich) -- a notable accomplishment for the 33-year-old. Despite it being just an ATP 250 event, Struff needed to beat back-to-back top-20 opponents in Holger Rune and Taylor Fritz to lift the trophy.

Despite a poor showing at the 2023 French Open, Struff's otherwise performed well on clay dating back to last season, owning a 12-3 record over the last 52 weeks. In fact, his 80.0% win rate is the third-best among all players in that sample.

Additionally, Struff was a runner-up in Madrid last year. Despite entering the main draw as a lucky loser, he would go all the way to the finals and fall just short in three sets against Carlos Alcaraz.

Munar has already spent quite a bit of time on clay this year, but his results have been mixed with an 8-6 record on the surface. He's 14-11 on clay over the last 52 weeks, which ranks just 37th. While Struff has cracked the top 25, Munar sits at just 73rd and has never achieved a ranking inside the top 50 since turning pro in 2014.

Tennis Abstract's model projects Struff to win 75% of the time, and Massey Ratings aligns with that at 71%. I like Struff to cover this modest spread in what could be a straight-sets victory.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.