Indian Wells Betting Guide: Friday 3/15/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
Indian Wells Betting Guide: Friday 3/15/24

Indian Wells -- aka the BNP Paribas Open -- is one of the world's most prestigious non-major tennis tournaments, often unofficially regarded as the "Fifth Grand Slam."

We're into the second week of the event, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Indian Wells Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The women's semifinals take place on Friday. Where can we find betting value?

Indian Wells Best Bets

Iga Swiatek vs. Marta Kostyuk

Kostyuk +6.5 Games (-128)

This looks like a classic mismatch between the top player in the world and one just outside the top 30. After all, Iga Swiatek is a -1000 favorite.

But Marta Kostyuk has quietly been enjoying a strong 2024 campaign, and while it's difficult to see her actually pulling off the upset, she might be able to at least keep things relatively competitive.

Although Kostyuk has been aided by a walkover at Indian Wells, she's yet to drop a set and has done so while facing seeded players Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Anastasia Potapova. Overall, she's 16-5 this season, recently finishing runner-up at San Diego and making it to the quarterfinals at the Australian Open. Her San Diego run included a win over fifth-ranked Jessica Pegula, further suggesting she can hang with tough competition.

Of course, Iga is more than just "tough" competition. While she benefited from a retirement in the quarterfinals, she also hasn't dropped a set, even achieving a pair of 6-0 bagels against Danielle Collins and Linda Noskova. Per Tennis Abstract, Swiatek has an absurd 88% win percentage on hard courts over the last 52 weeks.

Again, this is why it's hard to predict Kostyuk defeating Iga, and she might not even win a set. But Kostyuk could be on the verge of a breakout campaign, and this is a large enough spread to back her covering. As an example, Kostyuk could lose 6-3, 6-3, and this bet would still hit.

Coco Gauff vs. Maria Sakkari

Gauff 2-0 Sets (-105)

While Coco Gauff struggled mightily with her serve in the quarterfinals against Yue Yuan -- Gauff committed 17 double faults -- the fact she still won 6-4, 6-3 shows just how good she is even on her bad days.

Despite those serving woes, Gauff has now won eight straight sets since dropping her opening set in the second round. This included a complete beatdown of 28th-ranked Elise Mertens in the round of 16 (6-0, 6-2) that barely took over an hour.

All of this is a reminder of how dominant Coco has been on hard courts dating back to last summer, netting not only her first Grand Slam at the 2023 US Open but also picking up titles at Cincinnati, Washington, and Aukland. Per Tennis Abstract, Gauff has an 84% win percentage on the surface over the past 52 weeks.

Maria Sakkari has had her own ups and downs in this Indian Wells run, but in her case, it's resulted in far more court time, as she's gone to a final set in three of her four matches. Sakkari also didn't exactly enter the tournament at her best, having lost four of her last five matches.

Sakkari has a solid 59% win percentage on hard courts over the last 52 weeks, but that pales in comparison to Coco's mark.

If we look at the head-to-head between these two, Sakkari has a 4-3 advantage. However, we have to remember that Gauff turned 20 years old just this week, and she's a different player than the one from even a couple of years ago. What could be more telling is that the American faced Sakkari twice in the second half of 2023, and she won both of those matches in straight sets.

Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings give Gauff a 76.1% win probability, which falls in line with her implied odds (74.0%) as a -285 favorite. I like Gauff to bounce back from the last round's service issues and earn another straight-sets victory.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.