How Many Passing Yards Will Bo Nix Throw For As a Rookie?

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
How Many Passing Yards Will Bo Nix Throw For As a Rookie?

Certainly, the 2024 NFL Draft was historic.

Whether it was the influx of offensive players selected on Day 1 or the record fan turnout, the energy was all the way up in Motor City. If you're not thrilled for the approaching football season by now, perhaps this isn't the sport for you.

As a notable theme from the recent draft, we saw six quarterbacks taken in the first round, which tied the all-time mark. Of the signal-callers picked in the opening round, Oregon Ducks star Bo Nix was the final one chosen at 12th overall by the Denver Broncos.

Nix will join head coach Sean Payton's quarterback room that includes veterans Zach Wilson, Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci. Simply, Nix has every opportunity to be the guy in Denver this year.

So, how many yards should we expect the rookie to pass for in his inaugural campaign? FanDuel Sportsbook's Passing Props Betting Odds market has Nix's line set at 2,850.5 yards. Will that be a mark he can reach, or is the bar set too high?

Bo Nix Rookie Season Outlook

Why Bo Nix Could Pass for Under 2,850.5 Yards (-112)

For starters, Nix will need to win the starting job in the Mile High. Considering his wealth of collegiate experience (61 FBS games played), I don't imagine the Broncos will have Nix wait in the wings very long -- or at all. Additionally, he is only six months younger compared to Wilson.

After Brandon Weeden, Nix is the second-oldest quarterback to ever be selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. That should translate to some urgency in getting Nix on the field, but we really can't be too shocked if Denver doesn't make him the starter immediately. He's still a rookie, but given his relative competition, it is hard to imagine Nix won't be QB1 by at least Week 3.

Not playing in all 17 regular-season contests is one reason Nix could fall short of his yearly passing prop. If he does make every start next season, he'll only need 168 passing yards per game to go over this set total at FanDuel Sportsbook. Obviously, should he miss any games, that required clip will increase.

More pressingly, Nix should be most concerned about making the adjustment to NFL defenses and the speed in which they play; the difference between the pros and college cannot be understated.

At Oregon, Nix had the luxury of working behind a dominant offensive line while throwing to top athletes (ala Troy Franklin and Bucky Irving, who were also drafted in 2024). On Sundays, his competitive advantage will be subverted, especially while playing for a rebuilding Broncos team.

Denver's receiving corps looks a little different for the coming campaign. Courtland Sutton will be back in the Mile High, but Jerry Jeudy -- a former first-round pick of the Broncos -- is now a member of the Cleveland Browns. Josh Reynolds, who was last with the Detroit Lions, will slide into the WR2 role. For a familiar face, Franklin will be joining Nix, as Denver took him in the fourth round.

As usual, the Broncos will face their AFC West rivals twice each in 2024. Of those, the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs boast one of the NFL's best secondaries. Outside of the division, Denver also travels to the Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets, Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints -- each of those franchises currently employs a strong defensive backfield.

Why Bo Nix Could Pass for Over 2,850.5 Yards (-112)

Despite the many changes coming Nix's way, the 2023 Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year is not facing an insurmountable task in this market.

As referenced above, 2,851 passing yards (or 168 yards per game) is the mark Nix is looking to chop down at FanDuel Sportsbook. Last year, 20 different NFL signal-callers went over that threshold, including two rookies (C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young). So long as Nix is in the mix, he should have a fair shot to cash this market for over bettors.

Nix never crossed over 2,850.5 passing yards in any of his seasons with the Auburn Tigers. Conversely, he soared over that mark in both campaigns with the Fighting Ducks. Still, the NFL is an entirely different beast compared to college football, but the pro game offers a much larger regular season schedule. That would obviously work in Nix's favor here.

Improvement has been a theme throughout Nix's entire amateur career. Year-over-year, he continually propelled his numbers. By his final season with Oregon, Nix reached a scalding passing clip of 77.4% to lead FBS. More impressively, that was on 11.2 adjusted yards per attempt.

Nix's progress in college signifies a quick mental processor. Amongst all quarterbacking skills, the intangible trait of seeing the field while simultaneously reading complex defenses is paramount. Simply, Nix will need to employ quality decision making to give himself a shot at the NFL level; his 74-10 TD-INT ratio at Oregon is a solid indication of that.

Accurately evaluating quarterback prospects is the most challenging and consequential job of any NFL scouting department. You'll find many conflicting opinions on Nix, but at least now he'll be able to write his own story on the field. Depending on how Nix makes the transition, I would not be completely surprised if he goes over his annual passing-yardage total.

Largely, Sean Payton's expertise and schemes will go a long way into developing Nix as a professional. For a player with some similarities to Drew Brees, can Nix thrive under Payton?

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.