How Many Games Will the Marlins Win in 2024?

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere
How Many Games Will the Marlins Win in 2024?

The Miami Marlins finished last season with an 84-78 record, good for a third-place finish in a competitive NL East and a Wild Card spot in the National League. Their luck ran out in the postseason, where they were swept by the Philadelphia Phillies.

After an offseason where their most notable addition was infielder Tim Anderson, what is the Miami Marlins' win total set at for 2024, per the MLB win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The Miami Marlins' win total is listed at 77.5 with -120 odds on the under.

Let's dig into what we can expect from Miami this year and which side of the win total should interest you.

All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published. nERD via numberFire. Projections via FanGraphs.

Miami Marlins Win Total Odds

Miami Marlins Over/Under 77.5 Wins

  • Over: -102
  • Under: -120

Why Miami Could Win Over 77.5 Games (-102)

Miami’s win total is set 6.5 wins below the 84 wins they finished with in 2023. The Marlins did not do themselves any favors with notable additions this offseason, but they can still reach their win total on the strength of their pitching.

Miami’s pitching staff is projected for 16.2 WAR in 2024, the eighth-best in baseball. They struggled to score runs last season -- their 4.1 runs per game ranked 26th in the majors -- but their pitching helped them secure a Wild Card spot.

In 2024, FanGraphs projects the Marlins to allow slightly more runs per game than in 2023 but still has them projected to finish 13th overall. Led by Jesus Luzardo (3.2 WAR), the Marlins’ staff features eight pitchers projected to finish with WARs above 1.0, including Eury Perez (2.3) and Braxton Garrett (2.0).

If the Marlins' starting rotation can perform as expected, they should take advantage of more run support than they did last season. FanGraphs projects Miami to improve their runs scored per game by 0.41 -- a significant increase. They are still projected to be a bottom-10 offense, but they should be better than last season.

While things could go south for the Marlins quickly if their pitching doesn’t perform as projected, as it stands, FanGraphs projects them to finish with 80 wins, above their current win total.

Why Miami Could Win Under 77.5 Games (-120)

The Marlins were incredibly fortunate to finish with 84 wins last season.

They finished 2023 with a -57 run differential, which was 21st in baseball. They were one of two teams to make the playoffs with a negative run differential with the other being the Arizona Diamondbacks (-15).

Despite ranking 21st in run differential, Miami recorded the 12th-most wins. Their –57 run differential was fourth in their division. The New York Mets finished with a run differential of –12 but recorded nine fewer wins than the Marlins.

Miami should have entered this offseason looking to improve on both sides of the ball, as their playoff appearance was a bit of a mirage. Their 4.1 runs per game was the fifth-fewest in the league, and their 4.46 runs allowed per game ranked 16th. They did not rank in the top half in either phase of the game. Yet instead of improving their roster, they largely stood still.

What does that mean for 2024? A season that Fangraphs projects to be slightly better than 2023, but not by much. The Marlins are projected for 4.52 runs per game, a significant increase from last season but still the seventh-lowest mark in baseball. Miami’s 4.56 projected runs allowed per game is slightly more than last season’s mark, but it does rank 13th. The combined result is a projected run differential of –6.

The Marlins also have to contend with a difficult NL East. FanGraphs projects the Marlins to finish fourth in the division. It all adds up to a difficult path for Miami in 2024 that could prevent them from reaching at least 78 wins.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.