Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for August 13

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Esmerlyn Valdez (+450)
• Jarren Duran (+430)
• Trevor Larnach (+560)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks: Best Home Run Props Today

Home Run Prediction: Esmerlyn Valdez (+450)

Pirates at Marlins, 1:11 p.m. ET

Miami Marlins righty Tyler Phillips is struggling, and that has me interested in the Pittsburgh Pirates‘ bats in the day’s first game. Admittedly, I started to write up Brandon Lowe, but I ended up pivoting to Esmerlyn Valdez at longer odds.

Valdez’s MLB career is off to a good start. Against righties, he’s mashed his way to a 42.9% hard-hit rate and 47.6% fly-ball rate through 134 plate appearances.

Even in a righty-righty matchup, Phillips is nothing to fear. In the split in 2026, he’s posted a 17.3% K rate while giving up 1.23 homers per nine. He’s allowed at least one dinger in four straight outings, and once he’s out of the game, he’ll give way to a Miami bullpen that has surrendered the sixth-most homers per nine (1.26) over the last 30 days.

Home Run Prediction: Jarren Duran (+430)

Red Sox at Blue Jays, 3:08 p.m. ET

Sticking with the afternoon affairs, the Boston Red Sox will get to see Max Scherzer, who is running on fumes at this point in his career.

Mad Max owns a 5.10 SIERA and 16.8% strikeout rate this year across 36 frames. He let up two taters last time out and has been tagged for 2.75 jacks per nine this campaign. While it’s a small sample, Scherzer is permitting a .412 wOBA and 53.1% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters.

Enter Jarren Duran.

It hasn’t been a good season for the Boston outfielder. This is a quality matchup for him, though, and he’s starting to get on track, producing a .359 expected wOBA over his last 50 plate appearances. Just a season ago, Duran put up a .366 wOBA with the platoon advantage, so we know what he can do when he’s right.

After Scherzer is pulled, Duran can pick on a Toronto Blue Jays bullpen that sits 11th-worst in xFIP (4.57) over the last 30 days.

Home Run Prediction: Trevor Larnach (+560)

Phillies at Twins, 7:31 p.m. ET

These long odds on Trevor Larnach to go yard catch my eye.

Larnach and the Twins are hosting Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies. Nola is a good pitcher but is having a difficult time with lefties, getting tagged for a .372 wOBA in the split. He’s had a huge gopher-ball problem all season long, with lefty bats generating 2.13 homers per nine against Nola.

Larnach is quietly having a nice season. He’s got a .348 expected wOBA overall and a .360 wOBA with the platoon advantage. He’s mustered a mere five hits over his last 35 plate appearances, but two of the knocks were bombs. Although Larnach is a pinch-hit risk if he sees a southpaw later in the game, I think that’s plenty baked into these odds.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

Play the FREE Daily Dingers Game and select a player you think will hit a home run today! If your player hits a DINGER, you’ll get a Profit Boost Token tomorrow to use on ANY MLB Wager! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.