NFL Preseason Picks: 4 NFL Best Bets and Predictions for Preseason Week 1

NFL Betting Picks in Summary

• Colts -2.5
• Chargers-Texans Under 36.5
• Jets -5.5
• Jaguars-Saints Over 36.5

The first full week of the 2026 NFL preseason is here, with all 32 teams scheduled to play across 16 games from Thursday through Saturday. Betting preseason football requires a completely different approach than handicapping the regular season. The most talented team is not necessarily the best bet when its starting quarterback and most of its first-team offense could spend the night on the sideline.

That makes playing-time reports, quarterback rotations and coaching plans particularly important.

After going through all 16 games on the Week 1 schedule, here are our favorite bets for this week.

All NFL preseason odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds and may change after this article is published.

NFL Predictions and Picks for Preseason Week 1

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (Thur, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Colts -2.5 (-110)

This is my favorite bet on Thursday's slate because the Indianapolis Colts have one of the more attractive quarterback plans of the week.

Daniel Jones will not play, but that isn't necessarily bad news for a preseason bet. Colts coach Shane Steichen announced that Anthony Richardson will start and play the first half, with Riley Leonard handling the second half. Richardson and Leonard are competing for the backup job behind Jones, giving both quarterbacks plenty of incentive to perform.

The New England Patriots, meanwhile, are expected to sit Drake Maye. Mike Vrabel indicated that Maye is unlikely to play after receiving his competitive work during the Patriots' joint practices with Indianapolis this week. That would leave Tommy DeVito and rookie Behren Morton to handle New England's quarterback snaps.

That's an important QB talent differential for a preseason game, and I’m especially intrigued by Leonard in the second half against New England's deeper reserves.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans (Thur, 8 p.m. ET)

Under 36.5 Points (-110)

Rather than picking a side here, I'm targeting the total.

Both coaching staffs have made it clear that this game will primarily be about evaluating reserves.

Los Angeles Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh said roughly 15 veterans or starters will warm up but not play against Houston. Harbaugh's plan is to increase the workload gradually, with veterans potentially playing one series in the second preseason game and two in the third. At QB tonight, it’s expected to be Trey Lance and DJ Uiagalelei under center for a half apiece.

The Houston Texans is doing something similar. C.J. Stroud is expected to sit, along with a number of other Texans starters. Most of Houston's participants are expected to be rookies, backups and players competing for roster positions.

That means we are unlikely to see either team's regular offense operating at full strength for any meaningful period.

The Chargers' plan is especially appealing for an under because Harbaugh has already acknowledged that a large group of veteran starters will not take a snap. Houston taking Stroud and much of its first unit out of the equation removes the biggest offensive threat on the other side.

While these defenses will also be weakened by absences, both units should still be solid, and I think the defenses can bottle up the offenses.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Jets (Fri, 7 p.m. ET)

Jets -5.5 (-110)

Nothing says preseason like seeing the New York Jets listed as a 5.5-point favorite.

Among Friday’s three preseason games, the Jets have the clearest playing-time advantage.

Jets coach Aaron Glenn has already said that the Jets’ starters will play in Friday’s opener, including quarterback Geno Smith. New York should get at least some live-game work from Smith and the first-team offense before turning things over to rookie Cade Klubnik, who is currently listed as the primary backup quarterback.

Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are taking a more conservative approach, as Todd Bowles has confirmed that Baker Mayfield will sit out the preseason opener. Not only that but backup QB Jake Browning is also going to sit. That means we’ll see a lot of Jalon Daniels and Connor Bazelak under center for the Bucs.

This is a big spread for a preseason game, the third-biggest of the week, but given what we know about who will play and who will sit, I still like the Jets’ side. Smith and the starters should have a large edge at the start, giving Gang Green a chance to build an early lead and go from there.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints (Sat, 4 p.m. ET)

Over 36.5 Points (-105)

This is another bet driven heavily by what we know about who will — and won't — play.

The Jacksonville Jaguars seem to be leaning toward not playing Trevor Lawrence at all in the preseason, and it’s expected Jacksonville's established starters will sit out the preseason opener. Jacksonville's veterans received much of their competitive work during camp and the joint-practice portion of the week instead.

It’s a similar story on for the New Orleans Saints as starters aren’t expected to play on Saturday.

That leaves us with a very preseason type of outlook for this one as there should be backups all over the place. However, both teams have decent backup QB situations — Spencer Rattler and Zach Wilson for New Orleans and Nick Mullens for the Jags. All three have seen time as starters over the years, and Rattler was, at times, pretty solid in 2025 before Tyler Shough took over.

I’m bullish on the QB outlook despite Shough and Lawrence sitting. That pushes me toward the over for this Saturday affair.

Check out the full NFL Preseason Week 1 schedule with betting odds for every game.

NFL Frequently Asked Questions

When does the 2026 NFL regular season begin?
The 2026 NFL regular season kicks off Wednesday, September 9th at 8:20 p.m. ET with a Super Bowl rematch between the Seahawks and Patriots.

How many games does each team play?
Each NFL team plays a 17-game regular season schedule over 18 weeks, with one bye week.

How many teams make the playoffs?
Fourteen teams qualify for the playoffs — seven from the AFC and seven from the NFC. The top seed in each conference receives a first-round bye.

When do the playoffs start?
The NFL playoffs begin on January 16, 2027 and conclude with Super Bowl LXI on February 14, 2027.

Who are the Super Bowl favorites?
Per FanDuel Sportsbook’s Super Bowl odds, the Rams have the shortest Super Bowl odds at +550, followed by the Seahawks (+1100) and Bills (+1100).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.