Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Friday, August 14

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Pete Alonso (+350)
• Michael Harris II (+400)
• Lawrence Butler (+520)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks: Best Home Run Props Today

Home Run Prediction: Pete Alonso (+350)

Orioles at Rays, 7:11 p.m. ET

Lefty Steven Matz is getting the ball for the Tampa Bay Rays, and that puts Pete Alonso on my home run radar.

Matz has spent time in both the bullpen and the rotation this season. It’s not going all that well as he’s pitched to a 4.47 SIERA with an 18.1% strikeout rate. For whatever reason, he’s been obliterated at home, permitting a .377 wOBA in Tampa along with 2.25 jacks per nine. He’s also allowed 2.16 homers per nine to right-handers (overall, not just at home).

Alonso grew up in the Tampa area, and he very much enjoyed his first trip to the Trop this season, going 5 for 13 with a bomb across a three-game series back in May. He’s red-hot right now, popping three homers over his last four games, and he’s got a 44.9% hard-hit rate versus southpaws this season.

Home Run Prediction: Michael Harris II (+400)

Diamondbacks at Braves, 7:16 p.m. ET

Michael Harris II is having a really nice campaign for the Atlanta Braves, posting a .347 wOBA, his best clip since his rookie season. The next homer he hits will set a career-high mark, and I think that long-ball may come today thanks to a matchup with Brandon Pfaadt.

Pfaadt is really struggling to miss bats, recording a 15.2% K rate and 8.9% swinging-strike rate. He’s having a much tougher time with lefty bats (1.31 homers per nine) than righties (0.24).

Harris owns a 44.0% hard-hit rate with the platoon advantage, and he’s in a good groove right now, posting a .357 wOBA over his last 32 plate appearances. He can keep it going tonight.

Home Run Prediction: Lawrence Butler (+520)

Rangers at Athletics, 9:41 p.m. ET

It’s been a sluggish 2026 season for Lawrence Butler. He’s swinging it better of late, though, and he gets to take his hacks at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park tonight versus a righty.

Said RHP is Kumar Rocker, who is letting up a 46.6% hard-hit rate, 1.58 dingers per nine and a .374 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Yes, please.

Butler has only nine homers this season. Eight of them have come at home, and he’s got a a .349 wOBA with a 41.8% hard-hit rate at home versus righties.

With a .347 wOBA and 4 HRs over his previous 56 plate appearances, Butler has earned a promotion to the five hole, and once Rocker is out of the game, Butler will face a Texas Rangers bullpen that has the fourth-worst xFIP over the last 30 days (4.90).

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.