Best Home Run Bet for Today: FanDuel Daily Dinger Pick for Friday, August 14, 2026

Daily Dinger Home Run Pick

• Pete Alonso (+350)

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For today, who should you pick to hit a home run?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. This HR pick is taken from today’s home run picks article. Click here to find it as well our other MLB betting content.

Best Home Run Pick Today, Daily Dinger

Home Run Prediction: Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Orioles at Rays, 7:11 p.m. ET

Lefty Steven Matz is getting the ball for the Tampa Bay Rays, and that puts Pete Alonso on my home run radar.

Matz has spent time in both the bullpen and the rotation this season. It’s not going all that well as he’s pitched to a 4.47 SIERA with an 18.1% strikeout rate. For whatever reason, he’s been obliterated at home, permitting a .377 wOBA in Tampa along with 2.25 jacks per nine. He’s also allowed 2.16 homers per nine to right-handers (overall, not just at home).

Alonso grew up in the Tampa area, and he very much enjoyed his first trip to the Trop this season, going 5 for 13 with a bomb across a three-game series back in May. He’s red-hot right now, popping three homers over his last four games, and he’s got a 44.9% hard-hit rate versus southpaws this season.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.