Home Run Props Today: 3 Best Dinger Tuesday Home Run Predictions for FanDuel (Aug. 25)

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Jazz Chisholm (+470)
• Michael Busch (+600)
• Lawrence Butler (+480)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Props Today: MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks

Home Run Prediction: Jazz Chisholm (+470)

Astros at Yankees, 7:06 p.m. ET

Jazz Chisholm is in a good groove right now, and he has a home date with a righty who is making just his second MLB start.

Chisholm has mashed his way to a .472 wOBA across his past 19 plate appearances, homering in his most recent game. While his overall output this year has been meh, his batted-ball numbers have spiked in the second half to a 43.1% hard-hit rate and 44.4% fly-ball rate.

Pecko’s MLB debut didn’t go well as he gave up two earned runs in 3.2 innings. He had a good-not-great 22.2% K rate in Triple-A before being called up, and once he exits today, he’ll hand things over to a Houston Astros bullpen that has surrendered the sixth-most HRs per nine this season (1.26).

Home Run Prediction: Michael Busch (+600)

Cubs at Diamondbacks, 9:41 p.m. ET

I’m going back to Michael Busch again today because I think these odds are just a bit too long for a player with his power in a decent matchup.

Brandon Pfaadt is starting for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and while Pfaadt is getting quality results (3.39 ERA), the underlying numbers aren’t quite as good as he boasts a 4.27 SIERA and 17.1% strikeout rate. He’s let up 1.65 homers per nine to left-handed bats, too.

Although Busch has taken a sizable step back after a 34-homer campaign in 2025, he’s got a 40.2% fly-ball rate against righties. A season ago, 30 of his 34 long-balls came with the platoon advantage. He’s starting to pick it up of late, producing a .350 wOBA and 43.9% hard-hit rate over his last 62 plate appearances.

Home Run Prediction: Lawrence Butler (+480)

Twins at Athletics, 9:41 p.m. ET

Lawrence Butler is cooking right now, and I like this matchup for him against Taj Bradley at the A’s homer-friendly temporary park.

Bradley is a good pitcher, but he has some trouble with lefty bats, giving up a 47.4% fly-ball rate and 1.50 dingers per nine in the split.

Butler got off to a slow start this season. He’s rolling now, though. He’s posted a .374 wOBA in the second half, and Butler thoroughly enjoys Sutter Health Park, racking up a .347 wOBA at home this year, compared to a .265 wOBA on the road.

For the cherry on top, the Minnesota Twins‘ bullpen has the fourth-worst xFIP this season (4.68).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.