Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Thursday 5/9/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Bobby Witt Jr. To Hit a Home Run (+480)

Bobby Witt Jr. is an absolute star and brings an elite skillset to the plate every day.

The Kansas City Royals have a 4.32 implied run total and are up against Reid Detmers, a pitcher we can certainly target for some home runs.

This season, Detmers has allowed a .387 SLG, 0.88 HR/9, 36.6% fly-ball rate, and 31.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters, a viable set of stats to attack.

When it comes to Witt, he is elite in nearly every single area and currently sits in the top 93rd percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate, per BaseballSavant. It's truly a sight to behold but it doesn't stop there.

When we look at BaseballSavant's Expected Home Run (xHR) stats, Witt currently leads the league in negative differential between his xHR (8.5) and actual home runs (5). This means Witt has a ton a lot of things right at the plate, he just isn't seeing the ball going over the fence.

Those good things at the plate are a 179 wRC+, .433 wOBA, .252 ISO, 43.4% fly-ball rate, and 39.6% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Witt checks off every box we could possibly want to see, he just hasn't gotten the exact results we would expect.

I'm buying into his elite skillset in a good matchup, so I'll add Witt To Record an RBI (+125), too.

Jose Ramirez To Hit a Home Run (+390)

Next up, we turn to Jose Ramirez, one of the most consistent hitters in the league.

JRam has been doing his thing for a decade in the MLB and has always been a player with plenty of power upside.

Tonight, he can put that on display against Erick Fedde, who is struggling this year versus left-handed hitters with a .444 SLG, .328 wOBA, 1.96 HR/9, and 30.2% fly-ball rate.

The Cleveland Guardians have a slate-high 4.39 implied run total, so the offense is certainly expected from them tonight. Ramirez can add to that with his 88 wRC+, .189 ISO, and 49.0% fly-ball rate. This year, five of his seven home runs have come against right-handed pitchers, making this a solid split to target.

I'll add Ramirez To Record an RBI (+115), too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.