MLB

Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Thursday 4/4/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Home Run Prop Bets

Nolan Arenado To Hit a Home Run (+450)

The St. Louis Cardinals have a 4.30 implied run total for their home opener against the Miami Marlins.

With some solid hitters throughout the Cardinals' lineup, I'll turn to Nolan Arenado for a homer today.

He ended last season with a modest .167 ISO versus left-handed pitchers but had a solid 46.5% fly-ball rate and 34.2% hard-contact rate. In 2022, he was much better with a .366 ISO, 61.0% fly-ball rate, and 33.0% hard-contact rate. One lackluster season doesn't sway me too much given his track record of consistency.

The matchup against Ryan Weathers is worth targeting since he allowed a .395 wOBA, 5.88 xFIP, 1.66 HR/9, 43.6% fly-ball rate, and 31.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters last season. Weathers is a young and unproven pitcher who struggles with fly balls, making Arenado with his high fly ball rate a clear option today.

The Cardinals have some serious offensive potential with this matchup so I'll add Arenado To Record an RBI (+125), too.

Byron Buxton To Hit a Home Run (+420)

Next up, we'll look to Byron Buxton for a bomb today.

When healthy, Buxton is one of the best hitters in the league and is always capable of knocking one over the fence. He doesn't have a homer to start the season but with a spot near the top of the Minnesota Twins' lineup, he should have plenty of chances to grab one in a good matchup.

He was solid last year versus righties with a 110 wRC+, .328 wOBA, .243 ISO, 32.0% hard-contact rate, and massive 55.1% fly-ball rate. Very solid numbers across the board and he should be able to put those on display today against Tanner Bibee.

While Bibee is a promising young pitcher for the Cleveland Guardians, this is only his second year in the MLB, and he struggled a bit last year versus righties with a 4.19 xFIP, 1.31 HR/9, and 42.9% fly-ball rate.

If Buxton can get the ball in the air today, he has a chance to grab his first homer of the year. As usual, I'll add Buxton To Record an RBI (+170), too.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.