Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Thursday 4/11/24

Austan Kas
Austan Kas@AustanKas
Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Thursday 4/11/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Marcus Semien to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Between the small slate of games today and the fairly widespread rain issues across those games, it's a tricky day to find some homer props we can feel good about.

Rain won't be an issue for the Oakland Athletics-Texas Rangers game, so that's a good start. On top of that, Oakland is throwing JP Sears, a lefty who has permitted 1.78 long balls per nine since the start of 2023.

Right-handers mashed Sears a year ago to the tune of a 53.8% fly-ball rate, and that leads me to Marcus Semien.

Texas' leadoff hitter has been excellent so far in 2024, producing a .427 expected wOBA with an 8.9% strikeout rate. While he's popped only one dinger so far, he recorded a 47.4% fly-ball rate versus southpaws last year and is in a money spot against Sears.

You can make a case for a few Texas HR props in this afternoon clash, but Semien is where I'm landing.

Ke'Bryan Hayes to Hit a Home Run (+700)

Ke'Bryan Hayes hit 15 homers last year and showed signs of being able to lift the ball more often, generating a 39.0% fly-ball rate. Those power numbers have disappeared so far this campaign, with Hayes sitting on zero tanks and a 16.7% fly-ball rate.

But with Hayes getting a park-factor boost in Philly today in addition to facing a lefty, I'm intrigued by him at these +700 odds.

The opposing lefty is Ranger Suarez. A solid hurler, Suarez is off to a red-hot start through two outings, holding a 2.38 SIERA and 26.8% K rate. Last year, however, he ended with a 4.38 SIERA and 22.2% strikeout rate, so his 2024 numbers will likely regress over time.

In 2023, Hayes slugged his way to a .352 wOBA with this platoon advantage. Seven of his 15 taters came against lefties, and he did that damage over 168 plate appearances in the split (compared to 357 plate appearances versus righties).

All in all, Hayes' +700 odds to go deep catch my eye on this small slate.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.