Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday May 22, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Alec Burleson (+340)
• Riley Greene (+540)
• Mickey Moniak (+490)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Best Home Run Bets: HR Props and Picks for Today

Alec Burleson to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Cardinals at Reds, 6:41 p.m. ET

The St. Louis Cardinals get a park-factor bump today at Great American Ball Park, and they have a nice matchup versus Chris Paddack.

Paddack recently signed with the Cincinnati Reds after getting released by the Miami Marlins. He's the owner of a 16.9% K rate and 4.56 SIERA since the start of 2025. He's allowed a 43.3% fly-ball rate in that time, and he's unlikely to enjoy pitching at homer-happy Great American Ball Park.

Burleson has seven jacks this season along with a career-best .391 expected wOBA. He's at his best against RHPs, sporting a .410 wOBA in the split and hitting six of his seven dingers with the platoon advantage.

The good times can continue once Paddack is out of the game as Cincy's bullpen has the third-worst reliever xFIP.

Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+540)

Tigers at Orioles, 7:16 p.m. ET

Chris Bassitt is a solid pitcher and has been for a while, but I like this matchup for Riley Greene.

So far in 2026, left-handed hitters are having a ton of success versus Bassitt, racking up a .416 wOBA and 1.42 homers per nine against the veteran RHP. Bassitt's K rate is just 13.6% in the split.

Enter Greene, who has posted a .388 wOBA and 39.1% fly-ball rate against righties this season. Greene's overall expected wOBA of .381 is a career-high number, and he benefits from a park-factor boost at Camden Yards.

Greene has just four long-balls this year despite his superb underlying metrics. He's being held back by a 9.3% homer-to-fly-ball rate, which is well off his 17.7% career mark. He's due to start hitting more dingers.

Mickey Moniak to Hit a Home Run (+490)

Rockies at Diamondbacks, 9:41 p.m. ET

Mickey Moniak had a little breakout last year, and he's upped it to a new level this season, producing a .403 wOBA and 56.8% fly-ball rate -- both of which are career-best numbers by a mile. He's in a good spot today against Michael Soroka.

Moniak is hammering right-handed pitching to the tune of a .431 wOBA, 40.6% hard-hit rate and 55.2% fly-ball rate. He's hit 12 bombs this year, 10 of which have come with the platoon advantage. While his outlook today would be better if he was at Coors, the matchup with Soroka is a solid one.

Soroka is struggling mightily against lefty bats, surrendering a .364 wOBA and 43.7% hard-hit rate in the split. That makes him a friendly matchup for Moniak, and the Colorado Rockies' outfielder is one of my favorite HR picks today.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.