Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday, June 5, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Matt Olson (+360)
• Yordan Alvarez (+300)
• Ketel Marte (+420)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Best Home Run Bets: HR Props and Picks for Today

Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Pirates at Braves, 7:16 p.m. ET

Matt Olson is one of my favorite home run bets on today's slate because the underlying power metrics remain among the best in baseball.

Through the first two months of the season, Olson has already launched 17 home runs while posting a slugging percentage north of .550, and his Statcast profile continues to support that production. He ranks among the league leaders in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel percentage, which are three of the strongest indicators of future home-run output. His 46.8% fly-ball rate is actually a career-best clip.

Olson has also been swinging a hot bat of late, recording multiple multi-hit games over the past week and homering as recently as June 2. He has a .420 wOBA over his past 21 plate appearances.

His power plays against virtually any pitcher because he consistently elevates the baseball and produces elite contact quality when he gets a pitch he can drive. Today, he'll see righty Mitch Keller, who has a lowly 17.0% K rate against left-handed hitters. This is Olson's preferred split as he owns a .400 wOBA with the platoon advantage.

Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+300)

A's at Astros, 8:11 p.m. ET

Yordan Alvarez finds himself in one of the most favorable power spots on Friday's slate as the Houston Astros face an Athletics pitching staff that appears likely to piece the game together with multiple arms. Rather than seeing the same starter two or three times, Alvarez could get several different relievers throughout the night, increasing the chances that he eventually catches a favorable matchup.

The Athletics' bullpen has been a weakness at times this season and is coming off a rough series finale against the Chicago Cubs in which the A's surrendered a late lead after allowing multiple runs in the final innings. Houston's lineup should create opportunities for traffic on the bases, forcing Oakland's relievers into high-pressure situations from the outset. The Athletics' bullpen has the 10th-worst xFIP on the season.

Few hitters are better equipped to capitalize than Alvarez. The Astros' slugger has historically punished Athletics pitching, posting a .631 slugging percentage with 22 home runs in 70 career games against the A's. He also enters the matchup as Houston's premier power threat, with elite exit velocity numbers and the ability to leave any ballpark with one swing.

He's one of the night's strongest HR picks.

Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Nationals at Diamondbacks, 9:41 p.m. ET

Ketel Marte stands out as one of the better value home run bets on today's slate due to a matchup with a southpaw.

He's expected to face left-hander Foster Griffin. Griffin has pitched well overall this season, but Marte has historically been much more dangerous against left-handed pitching and owns the type of bat speed and pull-side power that can punish even quality mistakes. Against LHPs this year, Marte has produced a .364 wOBA and 46.7% hard-hit rate.

Marte enters this game swinging a hot bat after delivering a walk-off home run against the Dodgers on Thursday, and his recent form only adds to the appeal. He's got four jacks and a .448 expected wOBA across his last 53 plate appearances.

His combination of power, plate discipline, and lineup position should give him multiple opportunities to do damage against both the starter and Washington's bullpen, a reliever group that has the fifth-worst bullpen xFIP.

What are today's best NRFI picks?

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.