Home Run Picks Today: What Are Friday's Top Home Run Bets?

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Pete Alonso (+330)
• Nick Kurtz (+285)
• Teoscar Hernandez (+430)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Home Run Picks

Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Royals at Orioles, 7:06 p.m. ET

Right-hander Luinder Avila is getting the ball for the Kansas City Royals. Avila is being transitioned to a starting role of late, and he’s showing some reverse splits, with right-handed hitters putting up a 43.1% fly-ball rate and .395 wOBA against him across a small sample.

Pete Alonso‘s first campaign with the Baltimore Orioles is looking a lot like most of his seasons with the New York Mets. Alonso has popped 20 dingers with a .377 expected wOBA. His 44.4% hard-hit rate is a career-best clip, and he’s killing RHPs this year to the tune of a .383 wOBA and 46.4% hard-hit rate. Of his 20 tanks, 17 have come against righties.

Once Avila is out of the game, Alonso will see a KC bullpen that is allowing the third-most homers per nine (1.38)

Nick Kurtz to Hit a Home Run (+285)

Athletics at White Sox, 7:41 p.m. ET

Chicago White Sox right-hander Sean Burke has made some improvements this year, but he’s still a viable target in the HR market.

While Burke’s SIERA is a quality 3.71, he’s surrendering a 44.7% fly-ball rate. He’s given up 1.14 home runs per nine to lefty bats and has been worse at home (4.35 xFIP) than on the road (3.48). On top of that, Chicago’s bullpen has the ninth-worst xFIP (4.42).

Kurtz is mostly repeating his numbers from his stellar rookie season, registering 20 home runs with a 48.5% hard-hit rate and .383 expected wOBA. He hammers right-handed pitchers, posting a .414 wOBA and 52.3% hard-hit rate in the split.

Kurtz is a legit home-run threat on most days when the opposition is throwing a righty, and I like him in this spot versus Burke.

Teoscar Hernandez to Hit a Home Run (+430)

Diamondbacks at Dodgers, 10:11 p.m. ET

Southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez is having a rough year, and it puts a few Los Angeles Dodgers on the homer radar.

Rodriguez owns a 4.86 SIERA and 16.9% K rate, both of which are career-worst clips.

Among all of the viable LA options, Teoscar Hernandez catches my eye at these odds. He has a lengthy track record of success versus lefties, including a 40.8% hard-hit rate and 45.9% fly-ball rate in the split a season ago.

Hernandez went deep earlier in this homestand, and he’s one of my favorite HR picks tonight.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.