Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Props for Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Jackson Merrill (+320)
• Alec Burleson (+400)
• Max Muncy (+300)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions: MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Jackson Merrill to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Padres at Cubs, 2:21 p.m. ET

Last night, the wind was blowing out at Wrigley, and we got a 9-7 game between the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres.

Mother Nature has blessed us again today as there is 14-MPH wind howling straight out, and that -- combined with a matchup versus Colin Rea -- puts me on Jackson Merrill to go yard.

This is going to be a tough spot for any hurler. Rea doesn't profile as someone who is going to thrive in these conditions as he owns a 4.65 SIERA and 17.0% K rate. He's had a particularly hard time versus lefty bats, permitting a .357 wOBA in the split.

Merrill's numbers have fallen off a cliff this season, with his wOBA down to .270. However, he has a 38.9% hard-hit rate and 41.4% fly-ball rate versus RHPs, and anything hit hard in the air today will have a shot to land in the bleachers.

Alec Burleson to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Cardinals at Braves, 7:16 p.m. ET

The ball should fly in Atlanta today, too -- not because of wind but because of heat (88 degrees).

Reynaldo Lopez, a righty, is going to be on the mound for the Atlanta Braves, and he's struggled to a 4.56 SIERA this season with a lowly 8.4% swinging-strike rate. Lefties are mauling him to the tune of a .354 wOBA.

Alec Burleson is at his best against RHPs, producing a huge .417 wOBA in the split along with a 41.3% hard-hit rate. Of his 13 dingers this season, 12 have come with the platoon advantage.

Max Muncy to Hit a Home Run (+300)

Dodgers at Athletics, 9:41 p.m. ET

The Los Angeles Dodgers are enjoying their trip to Sutter Health Park, scoring nine runs in each of their first two games at the homer-happy Sacramento venue. They should be able to keep the good times rolling tonight versus RHP JT Ginn.

Ginn struggles way more versus lefties (.336 wOBA) than he does right-handers (.229). He's also having a miserable time at the A's temporary home, recording a 5.12 xFIP in Sacramento, compared to a 3.32 xFIP on the road.

After hitting 19 and 15 homers the past two seasons, Muncy already has 17 jacks this year. His .378 wOBA is his best clip since 2021, and he's generated a 41.8% hard-hit rate and 43.2% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage.

Once Ginn is out of the game, Muncy will see an A's bullpen that has allowed the seventh-most home runs per nine innings.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

Play the FREE Daily Dingers Game and select a player you think will hit a home run today! If your player hits a DINGER, you’ll get a Profit Boost Token tomorrow to use on ANY MLB Wager! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.