Home Run Bets for Today: A Pair of +600 Home Run Props Top Thursday's Picks

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Ceddanne Rafaela (+600)
• Alec Bohm (+600)
• Heliot Ramos (+560)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions: MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Ceddanne Rafaela to Hit a Home Run (+600)

Red Sox at White Sox, 2:11 p.m. ET

Among today’s afternoon games, Ceddanne Rafaela is my favorite HR pick.

Rafaela will see Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay. After a stretch where it looked like maybe he was figuring out some things, Kay is back to the struggle bus, recording a 5.40 ERA over his last six starts. He’s having a particularly hard time with right-handed hitters, permitting a .369 wOBA and 1.36 homers per nine in the split.

Rafaela can take advantage. The Boston Red Sox outfielder is having a career-best campaign at the dish, posting a .340 wOBA. He’s killing it against southpaws, racking up a .399 wOBA and 41.5% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage.

Once Kay is lifted, Rafaela will get to face a White Sox bullpen that has the ninth-worst xFIP this season, and the wind is blowing out to left.

Alec Bohm to Hit a Home Run (+600)

Phillies at Reds, 7:11 p.m. ET

The Philadelphia Phillies get to face Brady Singer on a day with the wind is blowout out to left at Great American Ball Park. That makes a few Phillies attractive in the HR market. With Kyle Schwarber (+126) and Bryce Harper (+255) at short odds, I’m turning my attention to Alec Bohm.

Bohm got off to a miserable start this season but has picked it up and now has 11 jacks, the same amount he had all of last season. He’s hot right now, generating a .384 wOBA with two bombs so far in July (32 plate appearances).

Singer has pitched to a 4.51 SIERA this season while surrendering an eye-popping 2.19 homers per nine.

Plus, the Cincinnati Reds‘ bullpen owns the worst xFIP and has allowed the fifth-most dingers per nine.

Heliot Ramos to Hit a Home Run (+560)

Rockies at Giants, 9:46 p.m. ET

Heliot Ramos has been cooking since coming back from injury, and I like this spot for him today against Colorado Rockies RHP Ryan Feltner.

Feltner is showing some reverse splits this year, giving up a 38.1% hard-hit rate and 41.2% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters. Despite playing his home games at Coors, Feltner is permitting a lot more homers per nine on the road (2.04) than at home (1.09).

Ramos has amassed 42 plate appearances since coming off the IL, and he’s been scorching, producing a .461 wOBA with four long-balls. He’s fresh off a three-game home series where he went 6 for 13 with a pair of tanks.

To make things even better, the wind is blowing out in San Fran, and Colorado’s relievers have the eighth-worst xFIP.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.