Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday 4/27/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Mike Trout
• Michael Busch
• Kyle Tucker

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Bets and Props

Mike Trout to Hit a Home Run (+370)

Angels at White Sox, 7:41 p.m. ET

Mike Trout is taking on a struggling lefty today, and that puts him on my HR radar.

Anthony Kay's return to The Show is not going well. Through 21 innings, he's sporting a 5.57 SIERA and lowly 13.0% strikeout rate. Righties are destroying him to the tune of a .423 wOBA and 2.35 home runs per nine innings.

Once Kay is removed from the game, the good matchups should continue as the Chicago White Sox own the second-worst reliever xFIP.

Trout is swinging it at a high level thus far, producing a .485 expected wOBA with nine long balls. He can take advantage of his date with Kay and the Chicago bullpen.

Michael Busch to Hit a Home Run (+490)

Cubs at Padres, 9:41 p.m. ET

After a breakout 2025 that included 34 jacks and a .369 wOBA, Michael Busch is off to a slow start. But I like his matchup today against Randy Vasquez.

Although Busch has hit only two dingers so far this season, there are some positives in his profile, including him shaving 2.1 percentage points off his K rate. He killed it in this split a year ago, hammering right-handers for a 40.5% hard-hit rate and .385 wOBA, with 30 of his 34 tanks coming with the platoon advantage.

Vasquez is pitching pretty darn well this year, and while there are some reasons to buy into it, I'm not fully sold. Just a year ago, he had a 5.43 SIERA with a 13.7% K rate and let left-handed hitters amass a 47.5% fly-ball rate.

Kyle Tucker to Hit a Home Run (+490)

Marlins at Dodgers, 10:11 p.m. ET

I'm going back to Kyle Tucker again because he's going to bust out at some point -- right?

He's the owner of a blah .316 wOBA through his first 120 plate appearances on the Los Angeles Dodgers. He's hit only three dingers and has a 21.7% K rate -- well above his career 16.0% strikeout rate. It sure seems like he's pressing.

But Tucker is just so darn good -- .379 wOBA from 2023-2025 -- that this can't last much longer, and he's got a sweet matchup with righty Chris Paddack today. It doesn't hurt that the wind is blowing out to right, too.

Paddack pitched to a 4.64 SIERA in 2025 and gave up 1.99 homers per nine to lefty bats. He's allowed a home run in three straight starts.

After Paddack, Tucker will see a Miami Marlins bullpen that is 11th-worst in xFIP so far.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.