Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Props for Thursday, July 23, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Matt Olson (+330)
• Yandy Diaz (+540)
• Alec Burleson (+520)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Home Run Props, Picks

Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Padres at Braves, 12:16 p.m. ET

On a day with zero night games and just five games overall, my first HR pick comes from Thursday’s opening game.

San Diego Padres starter Griffin Canning is getting rocked by left-handed hitters, permitting a .405 wOBA and 2.12 dingers per nine in the split.

Enter Matt Olson.

Olson has 26 tanks and a .374 wOBA. Against righties, Olson has put up a .388 wOBA, 39.8% hard-hit rate and 49.7% fly-ball rate.

With four jacks and a .393 wOBA across his last 60 plate appearances, Olson is in a groove, and the ball should carry well today with it being super hot in Atlanta.

Yandy Diaz to Hit a Home Run (+540)

Rays at Blue Jays, 3:08 p.m. ET

Shane Bieber recently returned from injury for the Toronto Blue Jays, and it’s not going well. He is really struggling versus righty bats, which was the same issue he had last season, so even though we’re dealing with small 2026 samples, I’m willing to buy into it.

That puts me on Yandy Diaz to go yard at this big number.

Diaz is an excellent hitter but not really a power hitter, amassing a .371 wOBA and .308 average. He’s not a total dud in the power department, though, hitting 14 long-balls this year with a 39.6% hard-hit rate.

A year after letting up a .396 wOBA to right-handed hitters, Bieber has given up a .484 wOBA to righties over a small sample of 51 total batters faced. He’s allowed 3.38 homers per nine in that span.

Given these long odds, Diaz is my favorite homer pick today.

Alec Burleson to Hit a Home Run (+520)

Diamondbacks at Cardinals, 5:16 p.m. ET

Alec Burleson is another hitter at long odds who catches my eye.

Burleson is at home versus RHP Brandon Pfaadt, the owner of a 4.29 SIERA and 9.4% swinging-strike rate. Pfaadt’s numbers against left-handed hitters is what pushes me toward Burleson as Pfaadt has surrendered a .368 wOBA and 2.03 home runs per nine in the split.

Burleson is having a career-best year, but his bottom-line numbers should be even better than they are as his .384 expected wOBA looks a lot better than this .348 actual wOBA. He kills it against RHPs, producing a .403 wOBA and 41.2% hard-hit rate in the split. Of his 15 homers, 13 have come with the platoon advantage.

The lone negative is that the wind is blowing in at 6 MPH in St. Louis, but I think that is more than baked into Burleson’s odds.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.