Fantasy Football: Can Daniel Jones Bounce Back in 2024?

Following a promising rookie campaign in 2019, Daniel Jones failed to be much of a fantasy factor the next two seasons, but his rushing upside always hinted at an untapped ceiling.

It finally all came together for Jones in 2022, staying healthy for the entire season and maxing out his running talents to the tune of 708 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs. The end result was a QB9 finish while averaging 18.4 fantasy points per game. It would even translate to real-life success, as the New York Giants would make the playoffs as a sixth seed and advance to the Divisional Round.

Unsurprisingly, Jones would enter 2023 fantasy drafts with far higher expectations, earning an average draft position (ADP) of QB13, per FantasyPros. But as anyone who followed last season can attest, his drafters would regret clicking on his name.

Not only would Jones play the fewest games of his career (six) due to a neck injury and eventually a season-ending torn ACL, but he would throw just two touchdowns compared to six interceptions when healthy. He averaged only 13.5 fantasy points across his four fully completed games.

The masses are off of Jones after that debacle, and he presently is being drafted as the QB27 at around 173 overall. Is there any hope of Jones returning to his 2022 form? Or is he an easy pass in 2024?

Daniel Jones Fantasy Football Outlook

Jones' Previous Upside

Beginning with the good, having any faith in Jones revolves around him running like he did in 2022.

Over his 16 games that year, he averaged 7.5 carries and 44.3 rushing yards per game while soaking up 29.3% of the team's red-zone carries. Among QBs, he finished the season ranked fifth in rushing yards (708) and tied for third in rushing scores (7).

Of course, for him to finish as the QB9 that year, he couldn't be a total zero in the passing game. Jones didn't exactly set the world on fire with his arm, but he threw 15 touchdowns and accrued a career-high 3,205 passing yards, and he limited interceptions, throwing just 5 with a league-best 1.1% interception rate.

Jones still wasn't particularly efficient, though, ranking 19th among qualified starters in expected points added per drop back (-0.04) and 17th in passing success rate (45.1%), per NextGenStats.

The best version of Jones is unlikely to carry the day with his passing, but even with those middle-of-the-pack numbers, his rushing upside led to big fantasy performances. In 2022, Jones' highs included scoring 26-plus points three times, one of which was a 36.2-point outburst in Week 17.

While there's no question 2023 was a disaster for Jones, he still managed to produce a spike week in one of his six games (31.7), and keep in mind that two of his starts were shortened due to injury. In his four complete games, he averaged 8.5 rushes and 43.3 yards on the ground, which is on par with his production in 2022.

A bet on Jones is a bet on him continuing to use his legs. The Giants also used the sixth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on highly-touted wide receiver Malik Nabers, who projects to be a huge upgrade over the pass-catchers Jones has thrown to the past two seasons.

A Litany of Concerns

The first obvious worry is that we need Jones to run if he's going to be a fantasy asset, yet he's coming off a serious leg injury. Reports on his recovery have been positive, and he's expected to be ready to go for training camp.

While this is a great sign, it's fair to wonder if he'll run less often, particularly as someone who's also had neck issues (though he claims his neck is 100% healthy).

Jones isn't likely to get much help from his offensive line, either. Establish the Run ranks the Giants' o-line 27th while PFF sets them even farther back at 29th.

The subtraction of star running back Saquon Barkley (now with the Philadelphia Eagles) paired with this questionable line also means Jones might not get a ton of help from the Giants' backfield, too. New York signed Devin Singletary and used a fifth round draft pick on Tyrone Tracy Jr., but it's hard to see this duo duplicating Barkley's production.

We also can't ignore just how poorly Jones performed as a passer in 2023. He posted -0.36 expected points added per drop back, which was not only significantly worse than 2022, but it would've ranked as the third-worst mark among qualified starters. Additionally, his replacements, Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito, were both more efficient at -0.05 and -0.33, respectively.

While Nabers could give a much-needed boost to an otherwise lacking WR corps, the unit as a whole still ranks 28th in PFF's wide receiver rankings, and it's not like it's a guarantee the rookie makes an immediate impact despite the clear talent and high draft pedigree.

Finally, it's no secret that despite his hefty contract, Jones will have a very short leash if he struggles. The Giants signed QB Drew Lock this offseason and reportedly sold him on the idea that he'll have a chance to start. While Lock himself later downplayed this notion and stated that he's the backup, having him lurking in the shadows as a potential replacement makes Jones' season-long value that much shakier.

Daniel Jones' Fantasy Football Projection

According to numberFire's model, Jones is projected as the QB24 with 3,613.8 passing yards, 17.9 passing touchdowns, and 12.3 interceptions alongside 97.4 rushes for 464.1 rushing yards and 4.5 scores. These numbers assume Jones plays all 17 games without getting hurt or benched.

Most notably, this projection sees Jones taking a significant step back in rushing with an average of just 5.7 carries for 27.3 yards per game. The passing yardage would be a career high, but Jones has never played 17 games in a season and the per-game average (212.5) falls in line with what he's averaged over his career (208.5).

In all, this feels like a reasonable median expectation for a player coming off a serious injury, played poorly last season, and has a mediocre 2024 supporting cast that will be relying heavily on a rookie wideout to succeed right out the gate. And this is without even getting into Jones' lack of job security while a potential replacement waits in the wings.

The Giants' win total is set at 6.5 with the under priced at -150 on FanDuel Sportsbook, which is another indication that expectations should be low for this team heading into the season.

Jones is an afterthought in the vast majority of one-quarterback formats, and even in superflex leagues, the low floor makes him dicey to rely on him as your QB2.

That being said, the ceiling he's demonstrated in the past does make him worth monitoring as a potential waiver wire pickup if he's still showing rushing upside and develops an early rapport with Nabers. He also probably has a better best-case scenario compared to the other fringe QBs in his range, giving him some viability as a low-cost stash in deep formats with large benches.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.