Fantasy Football: 4 Bold Predictions for Week 18

4mo

There's nothing quite like the NFL.

Football is one of the most intense, exciting sports on the planet. The source of the now-ubiquitous saying "Any Given Sunday," the NFL is a place where even struggling teams have a chance to topple the best in the league. Anything can happen when you play only 17 regular season games a year.

That uncertainty is a huge driver behind the excitement the NFL generates each and every season. What's more fun than watching something totally unexpected unfold before your eyes?

That's why, this year, we'll be bringing you four bold predictions to watch for each week the 2023 NFL season.

NFL Bold Predictions for Week 18

Nico Collins and Michael Pittman Jr. Will Combine for 200+ Receiving Yards (+310)

One of Week 18's most exciting games will feature a matchup between two budding stars at the receiver position -- Houston Texans breakout Nico Collins and Indianapolis Colts stud Michael Pittman Jr.. Consequently, the FanDuel Sportsbook is running a weekly special for the game, with both receivers to combine for 200 or more receiving yards sitting at +310 odds.

The Texans and Colts are each in a "win-and-in" situation for the playoffs and could even steal a division title if the Jacksonville Jaguars fail to defeat the Tennessee Titans. That means we should expect this one to stay competitive all the way down to the wire -- there's no way either of these receivers is coming off the field unless they suffer an injury.

Neither Collins nor Pittman appeared on their respective teams' injury reports to open the week, but Collins -- who has had more competition for targets than Pittman has this year -- could benefit from Houston's other wideouts being dinged up as both Noah Brown (back) and Robert Woods (hip) missing practice to open the week. With Tank Dell (ankle) on the injured reserve, Collins could realistically see 10 or more targets as the last man standing in Houston's receiver room.

That's a high-value position to hold in C.J. Stroud's passing offense. Excluding the game where Collins suffered a calf injury on the opening drive, the wideout has averaged a strong 83.8 receiving yards per game. He shouldn't need a crazy big game from Pittman to get this bet to hit.

That said, Collins should still get plenty of help from Pittman in this one. The fourth-year receiver has been on a tear and is tied for the sixth-most receptions (104) across the NFL. Even including the game where he suffered a concussion halfway through, the former second-round pick is averaging 73.9 receiving yards per game. So, combined with Collins' average, the pair are averaging 157.7 yards per game.

The total for this game has been set at a strong 47.5 points (second-highest of the weekend), and the spread is just 1.5 points. We're expecting to see some fireworks in this one, and we could get a back-and-forth affair where both offenses keep their foot on the gas. That should help propel both Collins and Pittman over their season averages and to combine for 200+ receiving yards.

Stefon Diggs Will Score the First Touchdown on Sunday Night Football (+950)

It's no secret that Buffalo Bills receiver Stefon Diggs has had a disappointing second half of the 2023 season. After averaging 103.3 receiving yards per game in the first six weeks, Diggs has been averaging just 37.4 receiving yards per game over his last seven and has topped 50 yards just a single time in that span.

Something's up, and given that he has not been listed on any of their injury reports lately, it seems as though it's not health related. So, what is going on?

As new offensive coordinator Joe Brady told media members this week, the Bills have been managing Diggs' reps to make sure he's fresh for the "stretch." The OC even clarified that while he "knows we're better" with Diggs on the field, "there's plays where we go into the weekend where we purposely have him out of the game."

The stats back up Brady's claim. While Diggs was a virtual every-down player under former OC Ken Dorsey, the star wideout has seen his snap shares fall precipitously since Brady took over -- he has averaged just 56.8% of Buffalo's snaps over the last three games.

That said, the aforementioned "stretch" obviously starts now, with a division title on the line this week. The Bills can claim the AFC East for a fourth consecutive year with a win over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday night. In such a pivotal game, the Bills will likely lean on their best players.

The last time these two teams squared off, Diggs went for 120 yards and 3 touchdowns. That was against a healthy Miami defense -- not the one that will likely be missing Xavien Howard in Week 18. Diggs' +950 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to score the first touchdown of the game -- just the sixth-best odds -- reflect his recent declined usage. If the Bills decide to unleash him this weekend, he could have much better chances to score the first touchdown than those odds suggest.

Geno Smith Will Be a Top-3 Fantasy QB

The Seattle Seahawks are still technically live for the playoffs, which means we should expect them to bring their 'A' game in Week 18 -- not that being eliminated from playoff contention has ever seemed to keep head coach Pete Carroll from bringing his best in the past. That means we should expect Seattle to field their starters against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 18, which puts quarterback Geno Smith in a fantastic spot in the final week of the season.

The Cardinals' defense has allowed the second-most points this season and has slid even further since their late Week 14 bye -- their opponents are averaging 34.3 points per game over the last three weeks. Quarterbacks, in particular, have enjoyed strong success against the Cardinals, averaging 19.4 FanDuel points per game (eighth-most) on the year and a ridiculous 23.8 FanDuel points per game over the last three weeks.

That sets up Smith for a fantastic finale. The Cardinals generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks at the second-lowest rate (17.5%), while Smith has earned PFF's seventh-highest grade as a passer when kept clean this year. He hasn't been kept clean all that often while playing behind Seattle's banged-up offensive line, but Geno should enjoy calm pockets for most of the day Sunday.

With a $7,300 salary for FanDuel's Week 18 main slate contests, Smith could end up being one of the best values at the quarterback position.

If you are into Geno and Seattle's offense this week, consider backing Seattle to be Sunday's highest-scoring team at +1200 via the weekly specials at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Tony Pollard Will Log His Second 100-Yard Rushing Game

It's perfectly fair to say that Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard has failed to live up to expectations this season. He had averaged more than five yards per carry in three of his four seasons operating as Ezekiel Elliott's change-of-pace back, but Pollard just hasn't been able to sustain his previous efficiency while handling a heavier workload. As a result, we've seen just a single game of 100 or more rushing yards from Pollard in 2023.

He'll get a chance to change that in Week 18 as the Cowboys gear up for a matchup against the Washington Commanders' league-worst defense. The Cowboys can secure the division with a win, meaning there's plenty at stake even with a playoff spot locked in.

The Commanders' defense has pretty much given up on the year. In the three games since their Week 14 bye, they've allowed their opponents to rush for an average of 181.3 yards per game. Over the course of a full season, that would add up to more than 3,000 rushing yards allowed, something that hasn't happened since 1980.

The Commanders are playing generationally bad defense over the final weeks of the season, and Pollard should be able to put up big numbers against them this week. He will finally capitalize on his opportunity and put up his first 100-yard rushing game since Week 3.

If you think Pollard has a big day, you can get him at -190 odds to score a touchdown and +310 odds to record two-plus touchdowns at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.