FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Picks and Helper for 4/20/24

Nicholas Vazquez•@nickvaz

13d

The 2023-24 Premier League season is winding down.

As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, which kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday. All betting lines come from the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

EPL DFS Picks

Slate Overview

Burnley (+145) at Sheffield United (+180)
Over 2.5 Goals: -164 | Most Likely to Score: David Datro Fofana (+155)

Brentford (+115) at Luton Town (+220)
Over 2.5 Goals: -186 | Most Likely to Score: Ivan Toney (+110)

Arsenal (-270) at Wolves (+700)
Over 2.5 Goals: -173 | Most Likely to Score: Gabriel Jesus (+145)

Positional Breakdown

Forwards/Midfielders

We've got only three games on this slate, and by far the biggest favorites are Arsenal. They have only the league to focus on now after being knocked out of the Champions League and desperately need a win to get back on track.

Bukayo Saka ($22, +175 any time goal scoring odds) is the man to target once again. He leads the Gunners in goal contributions. He takes corner kicks and penalties for them, which gives him a great floor/ceiling combination.

Other Arsenal players who we should be targeting are guys like Gabriel Jesus ($18, +145) and Leandro Trossard ($17, +175). They both have shorter than 2/1 odds to score, and Wolves have conceded the eighth-most expected goals (xG) in the Premier League, per FBRef's xG model.

The player with the best any time goal-scoring odds on this slate is not an Arsenal player, it's Ivan Toney ($21, +110) of Brentford. He scored 20 goals last season in 33 matches but has just four in 13 this season. The good news is that he'll face Luton Town, who have allowed the most xG in the league.

Bryan Mbeumo ($20, +155) is also someone to target on Brentford. He is less likely to score than Toney is but has a role on set pieces where he can get points for crossing. He has double-digit FanDuel points in all but one of the matches he's started this season. He'll likely go overlooked compared to the Arsenal players and Toney in this salary range.

I'd also target Yoane Wissa ($16, +210) for Brentford, especially if I have one of their other forwards in my lineup.

On the Luton side, Ross Barkley ($19, +430) has at least 20 FanDuel points in five of his last six games. He makes for a good value for this salary and probably won't be popular as a +220 underdog.

The game we haven't talked about is the meeting between Burnley and Sheffield United. These are the two worst teams in the league, but since this is only a three-game slate, we can't ignore players from these teams.

My favorite player from this match is Jacob Bruun Larsen ($15, +310). He's scored twice in his last five matches while taking corner kicks. It's rare that Burnley get a matchup against a team on their level, but Sheffield United are dead last in the table and have also conceded the most goals.

Added time -- There are four value plays who stick out, two from Luton and two from Brentford. On the Luton side, Tahith Chong ($13, +230 to score or assist) and Andros Townsend ($12, +220) both have decent odds to contribute to a goal for their salaries. For Brentford, Mathias Jensen ($14, +220) shares corners with Mbeumo and has had up to 13 crosses in a match this campaign. Mikkel Damsgaard ($12, +165) is also a great value if he starts.

Defenders

At defender, Alfie Doughty ($14, +220 to score or assist) leads the league in crosses. He's reminding me of Kieran Trippier, who also led the league in crosses in his first season in the Premier League while playing for a team that was threatened by relegation. Those odds to contribute to a goal are the best for any defender on the slate.

Sergio Reguilon ($13, +330) has exceeded 25.5 FanDuel points in each of his last two matches, so he's someone to target on this slate in a matchup against one of the weakest defensive teams.

For Arsenal, my favorite target is Oleksandr Zinchenko ($11, +300). He gets involved in the attack from his left-back position and comes in at a nice salary.

On the opposite flank from Reguilon, Mads Roerslev ($10, +420) also gets a good amount of crosses and offers a salary discount from Reguilon.

If Vitinho ($8, +410) starts, he offers some good upside in both the defensive and offensive categories for this salary.

Added time -- Santiago Bueno ($8, +1200) and Matt Doherty ($8, +700) are both longshots to contribute to a goal in this tough matchup against Arsenal, but they could rack up the defensive stats for a really low salary.

Goalies

David Raya ($13) has the best odds to win and keep a clean sheet on this slate. He plays for an Arsenal side that has conceded the fewest xG across Europe's big five leagues.

Arijanet Muric ($11) has conceded just one goal in each of the last three games, with last week's Brighton goal being an own goal (by Muric). Now, he's favored against a team that has amassed the fewest xG in the Premier League.

Added time -- On the opposite side of the pitch from Muric, Wes Foderingham ($9) is at home and facing the team with the second-fewest xG in the league.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.