Soccer

FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Picks and Helper for 3/2/24

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere
FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Picks and Helper for 3/2/24

Following a week full of FA Cup action the EPL returns for Matchweek 27.

As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, which kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday. All betting lines come from the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

EPL DFS Picks

Slate Overview

Crystal Palace (+550) at Tottenham (-220)
Over 2.5 Goals: -205 Most Likely to Score: Song Heung-Min and Richarlison (+135)

Chelsea (+115) at Brentford (+200)
Over 2.5 Goals: -200 | Most Likely to Score: Ivan Toney (+140)

Liverpool (-195) at Nottingham Forest (+480)
Over 2.5 Goals: -233 | Most Likely to Score: Mohamed Salah (+110)

West Ham (+260) at Everton (+105)
Over 2.5 Goals: -129 | Most Likely to Score: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (+170)

Wolves (+290) at Newcastle (-110)
Over 2.5 Goals: -182 | Most Likely to Score: Alexander Isak (+135)

Brighton (+160) at Fulham (+160)
Over 2.5 Goals: -173 | Most Likely to Score: Evan Ferguson (+185)

Aston Villa (-140) at Luton Town (+330)
Over 2.5 Goals: -223 | Most Likely to Score: Ollie Watkins (+115)

Positional Breakdown

Forwards/Midfielders

Saturday's main slate features three big-six sides with Tottenham, Chelsea, and Liverpool all in action. Tottenham will host Crystal Palace, Chelsea visit Brentford, and Liverpool travel to Nottingham Forest.

Despite the presence of high-flying Liverpool on the slate, Spurs are the largest favorite on Saturday, which sets up both Richarlison ($21, +135 anytime goal scoring odds) and Song Heung-Min ($22, +135) for success. James Maddison ($23, +180) and Dejan Kulusevski ($19, +310) also have positive outlooks, as Tottenham rank fifth in xG at home this season (26.3), per FBref.

Next up is Liverpool, who are on the road but in better goal scoring form than Spurs, with three or more goals scored in four of their last five EPL fixtures. Both Mohamed Salah ($24, +110) and Darwin Nunez ($22, +140) are questionable for this fixture, but if either is available, their anytime goal scoring odds are among the best on the slate. If Salah and/or Nunez are unavailable, Cody Gakpo ($20, +155) and Harvey Elliot ($17, +340) are well worth considering. Liverpool leads the league in xG/90 (2.22) and are second in goals/90 (2.27). This match has the best odds to see over 2.5 goals on the slate.

After Liverpool, the next largest favorite is Aston Villa, who are on the road against Luton. Luton is winless in their last four EPL fixtures and have conceded 13 goals from 10.2 xG during that stretch. It all sets up well for Ollie Watkins ($23, +115), who has the second-best goal scoring odds on the slate and has five goals in his last five fixtures. Douglas Luiz ($21, +300) and Leon Bailey ($18, +230) are also set up to succeed on Saturday. Villa has struggled to earn results on the road this season, but they have scored at least two goals in six of their last seven away fixtures.

Newcastle are slight home favorites against Wolves in a match that has the third-lowest odds to see over 2.5 goals. Alexander Isak ($19, +135), now back from injury, has the best goal scoring odds in this match, with Anthony Gordon ($20, +200) behind him. The Toons have scored multiple goals in six of their last EPL matches and rank third in xG goals at home this season (29.7).

Chelsea and Brentford are set for an even clash on Saturday. Even with the Bees as a home underdog, Ivan Toney ($22, +140) has the best odds to score in his fixture. In his seven matches since returning from suspension, he has four goals and is averaging 27.1 FanDuel points per match. The results have not been there, but the Blues have improved their finishing, with 1.8 goals per match over their last nine EPL fixtures. They have generated the fourth-most xG/90 this season (1.87). Nicolas Jackson ($19, +175) and Cole Palmer ($21, +190) could find success against a Brentford side that just allowed four goals to West Ham.

Added time -- Some other midfield options to consider include Conor Gallagher ($16, +175 to score or assist), Pablo Sarabia ($19, +190), Pascal Gross ($23, +165), Dwight McNeil ($18, +140), James Ward-Prowse ($19, +210), and Jarrod Bowen ($20, +155).

Defenders

With Newcastle on the slate, our search for defenders with consistent involvement on set pieces, once again, starts with Kieran Trippier ($16, +185 to score or assist). Trippier ranks fourth in key passes (63) in the EPL this season. For Liverpool, Conor Bradley ($15, +150) is another excellent option. In his four starts in 2024, he is averaging 29.2 FanDuel points and two chances created per game.

Antonnee Robinson ($14, +700) continues to have an excellent season. With his consistent involvement on both ends of the pitch, he is averaging 19.9 FanDuel points per game and has scored double-digit FanDuel points in 15 consecutive starts. For Luton, Alfie Doughty ($14, +230) continues to operate in the midfield of their 3-4-2-1 formation, averaging 17.4 FanDuel points per game.

As the two largest underdogs on the slate, defenders for both Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest should be busy. Joachim Anderson ($14), Chris Richards ($13), Murillo ($13), Neco Williams ($10), and Moussa Niakhate ($11) could have plenty of defensive opportunities on Saturday.

The same could be said for Luton’s defenders against Villa. Teden Mengi ($13) and Gabriel Osho ($12) will be tasked with containing Watkins, which should provide numerous defensive opportunities. For the Bees, Nathan Collins ($13), Zanka ($8), and Sergio Reguilon ($12) will have their hands full with Chelsea’s forwards.

Added time -- For GPPs, Liverpool's Andy Robinson ($14, +190) has eight chances created in his last three matches combined with over 20.0 FanDuel points in two of those three matches.

Goalies

Spurs’ Guglielmo Vicario ($14) has the best win odds on the slate, followed by Liverpool's Caoimhin Kelleher ($13) and Villa’s Emiliano Martinez ($12).

Outside of those three, Newcastle's Martin Dubravka ($12) and Everton's Jordan Pickford ($11) have the best win odds.

Of that group, Vicario holds a slight edge at keeping a clean sheet with Palace at +145 to score no goals. For Kelleher, Nottingham Forest is listed at +175 to score no goals, and for Martinez, Luton is listed at +230.

Both Dubravka, +210 for Wolves to score no goals, and Pickford, +195 for West Ham to score no goals, have better odds of keeping a clean sheet than Martinez.

For GPPs, Fulham's Bernd Leno ($10) is worth considering. Fulham’s clash with Brighton has the second-lowest odds to see over 2.5 goals. Brighton averages the third-most shots on target per 90 (5.85), which should give Leno plenty of save opportunities in a game that projects to be tightly contested -- both teams' win odds sit at +160.

Added time – West Ham are allowing the fourth-most shots on target/90 (5.54) but are facing an Everton side that has scored the third-fewest goals/90 (1.08) this season. Alphonse Areola ($10) could find success with Everton listed at +350 to score no goals.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.