FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 9 Monday Night (Chargers at Jets)

Monday night's matchup features a pair of teams that are polar opposites. The Los Angeles Chargers come in with one of the league's better offenses while also possessing one of the worst defenses. We can pretty much flip that around for the offensively challenged New York Jets that lean on their elite defense. According to the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, the Chargers are 3.5-point road favorites in a game with a modest 40.5 over/under.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

Per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, the Chargers have the NFL's sixth-best overall offense and the fourth-best passing offense. On the other hand, the Jets' adjusted offense is 31st and 30th in those categories.

With that in mind, it isn't surprising that three of the top four projected players in numberFire's model come from Los Angeles' side: Justin Herbert ($17,000), Austin Ekeler ($16,500), and Keenan Allen ($15,000).

Herbert is this season's QB3 in FanDuel points per game (21.9) and has scored 24-plus points in three of his seven starts. He ranks fourth among quarterbacks in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back, per numberFire, and while he doesn't run as often as the top dual threats, he can occasionally tack on points with his legs.

All that being said, he's likely to be the most popular choice at MVP, and the Jets are a brutal matchup for opposing signal callers. New York ranks sixth in adjusted pass defense and first in adjusted fantasy points allowed per drop back.

Ekeler also ought to be chalky in the multiplier slot but perhaps not to the extent of Herbert. In three games since returning from injury, he's averaged 14.3 carries and 5.3 targets per game, and he's the team's only RB to see any red zone rushes across this span.

While his rushing production has left a lot to be desired, Ekeler piled up 123 scrimmage yards last week primarily through his receiving work, and with Josh Palmer now hitting the IR, he should continue to be heavily featured in the passing game. That should particularly be the case in this matchup, as New York's elite secondary often funnels targets toward running backs.

The absence of Palmer (and Mike Williams) means that the Chargers are awfully thin at wide receiver, and Allen will almost certainly lead the slate in targets. numberFire's model gives him a median projection of 10.7 targets. For the year, he's recorded a team-high 30.1% target share and 35.7% air yards share.

The one worry for Allen is that he's facing a defense that's allowed the fewest FanDuel points per game to wide receivers. Although his frequent usage out of the slot could help him avoid the Jets' top corners, it's also fair to wonder whether New York could go out of their way to take him out of the game.

Breece Hall ($14,000) has the highest projection for the Jets, and he's an exciting MVP play if his multiplier roster percentage remains in check behind Herbert and Ekeler.

Over the last three games, Hall has averaged a whopping 126.7 scrimmage yards off 15.3 rushes and 5.7 targets per game. He's also logged 84.6% of the red zone carries during this stretch. There's no question that this is Hall's backfield now, and the Chargers are mediocre versus running backs.

Zach Wilson ($12,000) and Garrett Wilson ($13,000) are the only other players projected for double-digit points.

Outside of an outlier performance against the Kansas City Chiefs, Zach Wilson has otherwise been held below 13 FanDuel points in every other game, making him a tough sell at MVP outside of strictly slotting him there to be contrarian. The good news is this Chargers team is 30th in adjusted pass defense and has allowed the most FanDuel points per game to QBs.

Of the two Wilsons, I'm more inclined to look Garrett's way. Although his results have been held back by his quarterback's play, Garrett's role is incredible, leading the team in target share (33.5%), air yards share (50.2%), red zone share (54.5%), and end zone share (57.1%). This is the perfect spot for a ceiling game versus a D that's allowed the third-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts.

Flex Breakdown

Following the Chargers' top three options, Quentin Johnston ($8,000), Joshua Kelley ($7,500), Gerald Everett ($7,500), and Donald Parham Jr. ($7,000) are potential value plays.

Injuries leave Johnston as the next man up behind Allen in this wide receiving corps, and with Palmer hobbled last week, he logged season-bests in targets (6), receptions (5), and yards (50). While Johnston should be on the field for nearly all the snaps tonight, his lackluster season-long production makes him hard to get excited about against top-notch cornerbacks like Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. Even so, he's projected for the slate's fourth-most targets, which is notable at this salary.

When Ekeler is healthy, Kelley's typically limited to opportunities in the single digits, and he's logged 27.8% of the snaps over the last three. He did break away for a long touchdown run in Week 7, though, so he can't be ignored completely.

Everett and Parham split snaps at tight end and almost certainly need a touchdown to sniff the optimal lineup. Everett has the edge in target share (11.1% to 7.7%), but Parham sees more looks in the end zone (31.6% to 11.1%). New York has actually allowed the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to TEs.

Derius Davis ($6,000) could deserve some clicks as a dart throw, as he could see increased snaps as a third wideout. He's projected for 2.7 targets, putting him in the same neighborhood as Parham.

On the Jets' side, Allen Lazard ($8,500) and Tyler Conklin ($7,000) are the top pass-catchers after Garrett Wilson. Lazard's 87.7% route participation rate is second behind Wilson, but Conklin is still at a solid 66.3%. The two are tied for the team's second-best target share (14.3%). Given the difference in salary, Conklin feels like the better overall play.

Backup running backs Dalvin Cook ($6,500) and Michael Carter ($6,500) can largely be ignored. Cook played just 12.9% of last week's snaps, and Carter was only slightly better at 22.6%.

Considering all the uncertainty among the value options, kickers Cameron Dicker ($8,500) and Greg Zuerlein ($9,000) have added appeal, and the nature of this matchup lends itself to a field-goal fest. Along the same lines, a case can be made for both defenses, as well.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.