FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 7/18/23

When building a daily fantasy baseball lineup on FanDuel, nailing your pitcher is crucial to succeeding in any contest. Strikeouts are king -- although, innings-eaters and win potential can't be ignored.

With a pitcher serving as the backbone of your lineup, we don't want to mess around. Let's take a look at some of the top pitcher options and values, as well as some honorable mentions for today's main DFS slate on FanDuel.

Statistics are via FanGraphs unless otherwise stated.

Top Options

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates ($10,900)

Pittsburgh Pirates righty Mitch Keller clocks in as the top pitching option for Tuesday's DFS slate -- although, you'll have to offer up a pretty penny for his services. At $10,900, Keller is one of only three pitchers to eclipse a $10K salary today.

It's easy to see why, as numberFire projects him for 34.3 FanDuel points tonight -- their highest projection of the slate. Between his stellar recent play and solid matchup, Keller is someone worth every penny of his slate-leading salary.

Keller and the Pirates host the Cleveland Guardians tonight just one day after the Guardians blanked them, 11-0. While that offensive outburst isn't ideal, Cleveland has been inconsistent on that end, to say the least.

The Guardians' active roster ranks just 20th league-wide with a .312 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties. That can be largely attributed to league-worst power metrics, as no one registers a lower hard-hit rate than Cleveland's 25.7%.

Keller, meanwhile, has been stellar all season long -- racking up a 3.67 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) while sitting in the 89th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed (31.5%). With a 26.7% strikeout rate, he's racked up more than his fair share of Ks, although, Cleveland does strike out at the lowest rate in the league against righties (17.7%).

Having garnered 37+ FanDuel points in three of his last four outings, Keller is as safe as they come and a top option in DFS tonight.

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins ($9,800)

At $9,800, Minnesota Twins righty Bailey Ober is up to his second-highest FanDuel salary of the season tonight against the Seattle Mariners. It's for good reason, as Ober has been lights-out all year and now gets a tantalizing fantasy matchup.

For the season, Ober has allowed more than three runs just once, and with his 34.2 FPPG average, he's been one of the easiest set-and-forget-it pitchers in DFS.

Ober won't wow you with incredible strikeout stuff, nor does he boast a 100 mph fastball. What he does excel at is getting hitters to chase deceptively-fast pitches. He sits in the 93rd percentile in chase rate and the 99th in extension, per baseball savant.

With his 6'9" frame, Ober releases the ball significantly closer to the plate compared to the average pitcher. That could explain how he gets so many out-of-zone swings as hitters don't have as much time to react to his pitches.

The expected stats will tell you he's due for some regression as Ober has a significantly higher SIERA (4.02) compared to his actual ERA (2.61). Still, he's done an excellent job limiting hard contact and walks, sitting in the 81st percentile with a 33.9% hard-hit rate and the 88th percentile with a 5.6% walk rate.

Even with those expected stats, I'm not going to start doubting him now -- not with a matchup with the Mariners on deck. Their current roster has an unimpressive .311 wOBA against right-handed pitchers but what really excites me is their strikeout rate.

At 25.7%, Seattle boasts the second-highest strikeout rate in the league against righties. That's likely contributing to his sky-high projection, as numberFire projects him for 31.8 FanDuel points -- the third-highest of the slate.

Continue to ride Ober as one of the top pitching options in a soft matchup.

Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres ($9,600)

Rounding out tonight's top options, San Diego Padres righty Joe Musgrove comes into tonight as one of the hottest pitchers in baseball.

Since May 26th, Musgrove has rattled off quality starts in eight of his nine outings. He compiled a 1.79 ERA (3.39 SIERA) over that span, recording a 25.1% strikeout rate compared to a minuscule 3.7% walk rate.

Perhaps most impressive of late is his Statcast data. He's allowed the second-lowest hard-hit rate (24.5%) and the lowest barrel rate (2.0%) among qualified pitchers over that span.

While a matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays tonight isn't a slam dunk, they haven't been the offensive juggernaut we've come to expect. Since June 1st, the Blue Jays have had a .324 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. That's a strong number, but not one to run automatically away from.

numberFire projects Musgrove for 31.8 FanDuel points tonight -- tied with Ober for the third-most of the slate.

While the matchup may scare some people away, the former Cy Young winner's dominant stretch makes him a top pitching play tonight, even against Toronto.

Value Plays

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers ($8,700)

Detroit Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal hasn't given up a run through two starts this season and now gets a juicy matchup with the Kansas City Royals.

The southpaw missed the first three months of the season before debuting with two starts right before the All-Star Break. He looked sharp, going 4.0 innings in both starts, allowing just two hits, and striking out 11.

Questions about Skubal's workload cap his ceiling, as he's been held to just 57 and 63 pitches in his first two starts. Still, he's made his limited action count with 27 and 30 FanDuel points.

If he's able to progress through the fifth or sixth inning tonight, Skubal could truly burst onto the scene as he continues to show no signs of rust after recovering from Tommy John surgery.

What better opponent to do that against than the Royals -- a lineup boasting the seventh-highest strikeout rate (24.8%) and the eighth-lowest wOBA (.304) against lefties.

numberFire projects Skubal for 26.8 FanDuel points tonight. With the Royals' implied team total set at 3.9 runs, that projection could be on the conservative end of the spectrum.

Given his sub-$9,000 salary and soft matchup, Skubal is a top value play in DFS tonight.

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners ($8,100)

Heading back to T-Mobile Park, Mariners rookie Bryan Woo checks in as another top value play after eclipsing 29 FanDuel points in each of his previous six starts.

Woo gets a mouthwatering matchup with the Minnesota Twins. While the Twins can put up runs, they also strike out... a lot. Against righties, Minnesota leads the league with a 27.2% strikeout rate.

That feeds right into Woo's strengths. Over his last six starts, Woo owns a 30.7% strikeout rate -- 10th-best in the majors over that span. He's recorded a strong 3.27 SIERA during that time, proving his success to hold up at least within the expected stat market.

It's hard not to check out his Baseball Savant percentile rankings and not come away intrigued. The sample size isn't massive, but he's in at least the 85th percentile in expected batting average, strikeout rate, and chase rate while sitting in the top 5% of the league in expected wOBA (.262).

numberFire projects 29.5 FanDuel points for Woo tonight. That is the seventh-most overall and the second-most among sub-$9,000 pitchers. If you're looking to save some salary for hitters, Woo is a top option.

Honorable Mentions

Today's pitching slate is no joke, so let's quickly run through some of the guys I missed up top.

Nathan Eovaldi ($10,700) has been one of the best stories of the season and he was a contest-winner for much of the season. However, his SIERA is up to 4.35 since June 1st and he's allowing a 42% hard-hit rate over that span. Let your opponents roster him tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Jordan Montgomery ($9,100) could be a steal tonight against the Miami Marlins. numberFire projections have him at 32.4 FanDuel points, their second-highest of the slate. He's quietly been lights-out over his last nine starts -- posting a 1.70 ERA and 23.8% strikeout rate over that span.

Two rookies the projections adore tonight are Logan Allen ($8,500) and Hunter Brown ($8,300). Neither will set you back much and both are facing soft matchups. Allen's projected for 28.6 in Pittsburgh while numberFire has Brown going f for 31.6 on the road against the Colorado Rockies. Of the two, I like Allen more as I tend to stay away from rookies at Coors' Field.

For the pyromaniacs out there, both Taj Bradley ($7,300) and Alek Manoah ($6,600) are bargain-bin options with contest-winning upside. Their matchups are terrifying, with Bradley visiting the Texas Rangers and Manoah hosting the San Diego Padres. Neither is consistent and they're likely to bomb but if you enjoy living on the edge... there you go.

Finally, Jameson Taillon ($6,300) is projected for 28.7 FanDuel points tonight -- by far the most of anyone salaried under $8,000. His matchup with the Washington Nationals is solid on paper and, while he's been inconsistent, Taillon is coming off an eight-inning, shutout performance against the Yankees that netted him 46 FanDuel points.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.