FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Thursday 1/4/23

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

Stephen Curry ($8,700) -- Fresh off his highest FanDuel-point (FP) total of the season (60.4), Stephen Curry is very enticing at his still-manageable $8,700 salary. Curry has faced the Denver Nuggets twice this season, posting just 35.0 and 29.4 FP. However, he shot a combined 13 for 38 in those two games, so I'm comfortable chalking those up to cold outings. Denver is top 10 in FP allowed to both PGs and SGs, according to FantasyPros, but Curry still has the highest ceiling among guards tonight.

Devin Vassell ($7,200) -- Despite being 9.5-point underdogs, the San Antonio Spurs have a 119.0 implied total tonight. That should benefit Devin Vassell against a Milwaukee Bucks defense allowing the sixth-most points per game to opposing SGs. Vassell is coming off a quiet game, but he'd averaged 41.8 FP in his four prior outings. Additionally, he could see an uptick in production with Malaki Branham doubtful. Per RotoGrinders' CourtIQ, Vassell owns a 24.2% usage rate with Branham off the floor, second highest on the Spurs.

Tre Jones ($5,000) -- Tre Jones is in a great spot to out-produce his salary tonight with Branham banged up. Jones will likely end up starting in his place, but he should see an uptick in his 23.5 minutes per game regardless. numberFire projects Jones for 29.8 FP tonight, making him the best point-per-dollar value on the slate.

Others to Consider

Jamal Murray ($8,500) -- Jamal Murray is rounding into form, so he's a viable alternative to Curry-based lineups. Across his last seven outings, Murray has averaged 22.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 7.1 assists, clocking in at 45.0 FP per game. That includes a 42.5-FP outing against these very Golden State Warriors on Christmas Day. Golden State has let up the sixth-most FP to opposing PGs this season, clearing the way for Murray to thrive again tonight.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,800) -- Since a two-game absence in mid-December, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has averaged 22.4 FP in 29.8 minutes per night. That won't blow you away, but it's reliable production from a starter with a sub-$5,000 salary. KCP played well in two prior matchups with Golden State, totaling 21.1 and 34.3 FP, and he should benefit from Denver's 119.0 implied total.

Wings

Top Plays

Michael Porter Jr. ($6,800) -- Michael Porter Jr. isn't someone I'm usually targeting given his inconsistencies, but I'm intrigued with his upside given the light slate. MPJ has eclipsed 35 FP in 11 games this season, two of which came against Golden State. Though Milwaukee-San Antonio has a better game environment, a 235.5-point over/under is nothing to scoff at. Porter Jr. is an effective way to get exposure to Jokic on a night that's light on wings.

Malik Beasley ($4,900) -- Malik Beasley is one of a handful of Bucks who could see an uptick in production, assuming Khris Middleton sits on the second night of a back-to-back. Beasley has averaged 4.6 more FP in his four games without Middleton, and he's quietly second on the team in minutes (31.6) during such games. He's cooled off after a hot start to the season, but San Antonio's 25th-rated defense presents him with a nice bounce-back opportunity given the 247.5-point over/under.

MarJon Beauchamp ($3,800) -- Like Beasley, MarJon Beauchamp should see more production with Middleton sidelined. Beauchamp has averaged 21.3 minutes per game without Middleton, compared to just 14.9 with him. He's been trending in the right direction minutes-wise even with Middleton active, playing 20 minutes in two of their last four games with Khris in the lineup.

Others to Consider

Jonathan Kuminga ($6,000) -- There appears to be a changing of the guard in Golden State after Jonathan Kuminga logged a season-high 34 minutes in their first game of 2024. Kuminga matched that with a season-best 37.2 FP, eclipsing 30 FP for the second straight game. The former seventh-overall pick attempted the second-most shots on the team in their win over Orlando and could continue to operate as their No. 2 option going forward.

Pat Connaughton ($4,000) -- On a four-game slate, you're likely to see a lot of the same value plays across lineups, but Pat Connaughton may not be as popular as Beasley or Beauchamp. Connaughton has averaged 21.7 minutes and 15.7 FP in five games sans Middleton this season. Points should be plentiful given the 247.5-point over/under, and San Antonio has allowed the most threes (14.4) in the league at the second-highest clip (39%).

Bigs

Top Plays

Nikola Jokic ($11,900) -- Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic put up 67.1 FP in his previous visit to Golden State this season. With Draymond Green out of the picture, I won't be shocked to see more of the same tonight. Though the Joker has been quiet (by his standards) over the last two games, he still possesses slate-breaking potential. The 'Dubs have quietly posted the fourth-best rebound rate in the NBA, but they've kept Jokic under 12 'boards just once since 2019.

Victor Wembanyama ($9,500) -- The harder I look at this slate, the more I want Victor Wembanyama in my lineup. Wemby gets his first taste of the Greek Freak tonight after he missed their earlier matchup. The only concern here is a minutes restriction, as he's been held under 27 minutes for five straight games. That said, he ticked back up to 26 in their most recent outing. That's more than enough to produce against a Bucks defense that's bottom-10 in defensive rating.

Bobby Portis ($5,600) -- Bobby Portis has been one of the biggest beneficiaries when Middleton sits, so he's a strong value at his $5,600 salary. In five games sans Middleton, Portis has averaged 29.2 FP and posted an eye-popping 26.8% usage rate. Compare that to his 24 FP and 19.4% usage rate with Middleton active. The matchup is great, too. In addition to Milwaukee's 128.5 implied total, the Spurs have given up the seventh-most FP to PFs and the sixth-most to Cs.

Others to Consider

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,100) -- I'd be hard-pressed to build a lineup without one of Jokic or Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight -- I just prefer the Joker. Giannis has the matchup to thrive, without a doubt. The Spurs are bottom-10 in FP allowed to both PFs and Cs. Coupled with their 25th-rated defense and third-ranked pace, it's easy to see Giannis dominating. Though San Antonio did hold Giannis to his lowest scoring total of the season last month, he still went for 57.9 FP thanks to an 11-point, 14-rebound, 16-assist triple-double.

Trayce Jackson-Davis ($5,700) -- Low-salary bigs are hard to come by tonight, so I'm targeting one of either Bobby Portis or Trayce Jackson-Davis. With dual PF/C eligibility and nearly identical salaries, both are quality options. TJD has really come on of late, averaging 28.1 FP in his last eight games.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.