FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Monday 3/4/24

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FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Monday 3/4/24

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. Our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- update throughout the day to reflect current news. You can also turn to numberFire for player news updates as well as a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

Betting lines via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Projections and betting odds may change after this article is published.

NBA DFS Picks

Monday's main slate on FanDuel features four games, but two stand out as superior game environments.

For a full breakdown, see numberFire's matchup heat map.

Top matchups:

Other games:

Guards

Top Plays

Damian Lillard ($8,600) -- If you're allocating a lot of salary to perimeter players, Damian Lillard is the high-salary guard to target. Dame has gone cold the last two games, but he'd posted at least 40 FanDuel points in Milwaukee's first three games out of the All-Star break. Tonight, he benefits from playing in the slate's second-highest over/under (227.0) against a struggling Clippers defense. Over their last 15 games, LA is 22nd in defensive rating and has given up the ninth-most FPPG to opposing PGs, according to FantasyPros. Lillard's 41.6-FP numberFire projection is the highest among guards as of Monday afternoon.

Tyus Jones ($7,000) -- Wizards-Jazz features two of the Association's three worst defensive ratings over the last 15 games, and their 241.5 over/under is 15 points higher than the next-closest total. I want a ton of exposure here, first and foremost with Tyus Jones. Jones has been an absolute wizard of a floor general of late, averaging 12.4 assists per game over his last eight outings. He's set up for a ceiling game against a Utah D that's given up the fourth-most FPPG to PGs.

Keyonte George ($6,500) -- The Wizards have been a trainwreck on defense this season, allowing the second-most FPPG to PGs and the third-most to SGs. That should allow all three of Utah's fantasy-relevant guards to flourish, but Keyonte George is who I want the most exposure to. George is fresh off 31 real-world points -- his second 30-point outing in the last six games -- and has averaged 33.6 minutes per game since the All-Star break.

Others to Consider

Collin Sexton ($7,400) -- I don't love stacking high-usage guards from the same offense, but Lauri Markkanen's injury should let both Keyonte George and Collin Sexton thrive in a soft matchup. He's exceeded 40 FPs in two of Utah's five games since the All-Star break, leading the team with a 26% usage rate. Sexton's points + assists prop is set at 27.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Jordan Poole ($6,700) -- In larger tournaments, Jordan Poole makes a ton of sense. Poole has begun to flash his upside of late, eclipsing 45 FPs and 30 real-world points in two of six games since the break. He was held under 27 FPs in the other four, so there's certainly a wide range of outcomes here. Still, Utah is a fantasy goldmine for opposing guards, and this is the best game environment on the slate.

Patrick Beverley ($4,300) -- There's not an obvious salary-saver among guards tonight, but I can get behind Patrick Beverley at $4.3K. Pat Bev has exceeded 20 FPs in three straight games and is coming off his best scoring output (14 points) as a Buck. The Clippers' defensive struggles give him a decent floor given the recent production.

Wings

Top Plays

Anthony Edwards ($9,400) -- The only drawback with Anthony Edwards tonight is the lopsided spread (Timberwolves -14), but that's baked into his salary. While Minnesota has blown Portland out three times already, the last two came with ANT exceeding 55 FPs. He's gone for 40 FPs in five of six games since the All-Star break, averaging 27.2 real-world points over that span. There's obvious downside if the Wolves sit him early, but Edwards should feast on a per-minute basis. His points prop is set at 26.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Deni Avdija ($6,300) -- Deni Avdija has picked up right where he left off after a three-game absence to open the second half. In his last two games, Avdija has posted 41.5 FPs (in 43 minutes) and 25.5 FPs (in 26 minutes). Defensively, Utah is a mess all around. However, they've been especially poor against forwards, allowing the second-most FPPG to SFs and the most to PFs. With five 45-FP games under his belt, Avdija has slate-breaking upside in such a soft matchup.

Norman Powell ($5,100) -- Norman Powell has been trending up, averaging 25.9 FPPG since the All-Star break. Now, with Russell Westbrook out, Powell is primed to lead the Clippers' second unit. We shouldn't project a huge spike in usage given LA's wealth of stars, but Powell's proven capable of producing when called upon. While Milwaukee has the league's top scoring defense since the All-Star break, Powell's low salary and consistent minutes make him a nice value.

Others to Consider

Kyle Kuzma ($8,400) -- Kyle Kuzma benefits from the same stellar matchup as Deni Avdija. Though he comes with a higher salary, that's tied to a higher floor. Kuz has gone for 40 FPs in five of six games since the All-Star break, averaging 25.2 real-world points and 8.5 rebounds per game. Utah did keep him to 35.7 FPs when they squared off in January, but Kuzma still went for 26 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists. Considering the matchups, he has a similar floor to Anthony Edwards, just at a lower salary.

Jaden McDaniels ($5,100) -- We're starved for value across the board tonight, but Jaden McDaniels is a fine flier in larger tournaments. McDaniels continues to play heavy minutes for the Wolves -- a nice role to have against Portland. He went for 28.5 FPs in this matchup right before the All-Star break.

Brice Sensabaugh ($3,500) -- The 28th overall pick in last summer's draft, Brice Sensabaugh has finally cracked Washington's rotation. He's averaged only 14.4 minutes since the All-Star break but projects well tonight. numberFire's model pegs him for 21.2 FPs in 23.1 minutes tonight, making him the top point-per-dollar value on the slate (6.06 FPs per $1,000).

Bigs

Top Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000) -- Giannis Antetokounmpo boasts the slate's top numberFire projection (53.7 FPs) by over 10 FPs. He's the lone player with a five-figure salary, but he's well worth building around. The Greek Freak is questionable, but he's coming off a 79.2-FP outing and has the right matchup to break the slate. The Clippers have given up the sixth-most points in the paint and rank 20th in rebound rate since the All-Star break.

John Collins ($6,800) -- With Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler out, John Collins figures to be one of the highest-rostered players of the slate. This isn't a spot to fade the public -- Collins is a core play. Washington is among the three-friendliest fantasy defenses for opposing bigs, and they've allowed the most paint points since the break. Collins' 37.6-FP projection makes him the top point-per-dollar value among bigs (5.53 FPs per $1,000).

Taylor Hendricks ($5,300) -- I'm more than O.K. doubling up on Utah's bigs tonight given Taylor Hendricks' low salary. The rookie lottery pick has averaged 24 FPPG since the All-Star break, playing at least 25 minutes in all five games. With Markkanen and Kessler out, he could crack 30 minutes for the first time in his career. His points + rebounds prop is set at 17.5 and Taylor Hendricks To Record a Double Double is +410 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Others to Consider

Marvin Bagley ($6,900) -- Marvin Bagley III's fantasy production can be inconsistent, but the upside is there in an advantage matchup. Bagley has exceeded 40 FPs in two of Washington's six games since the All-Star break and he's played at least 30 minutes in three of the last four. Another ceiling game could be on the horizon tonight given Utah's lackluster interior D. Over their last 15 games, the Jazz have given up the third-most FPPG to PFs and the most to Cs.

Brook Lopez ($6,300) -- According to numberFire projections,Brook Lopez is the second-best value among bigs, projected for 33.3 FPs (5.29 FPs per $1,000). He benefits from the Clippers' interior struggles and Milwaukee's palatable implied total (115.75). That said, Lopez has exceeded 30 FPs only once since the All-Star break, so I'm good to pivot to Bobby Portis ($6,500) in the same matchup. Portis has been remarkably consistent of late, averaging 30.4 FPPG dating back to the beginning of February.

Jabari Walker ($5,500) -- I don't want much exposure to the Portland offense, but it's hard to ignore Jabari Walker with Jerami Grant doubtful. Walker went for 41 and 36.4 FPs over the weekend, though both games were against Memphis. Minnesota will present a much greater challenge for the Blazers' offense, but Walker did pop for 36.1 FPs in a January meeting between the division foes. Toumani Camara ($5,100) has some appeal here, too. He's flirted with 30 FPs in two of the last three games and averaged 22.3 FPPG in three previous matchups with Minnesota.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.