FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Monday 2/5/24

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

Donovan Mitchell ($10,600) -- There's a surplus of high-salary guards tonight, but Donovan Mitchell takes the cake. Mitchell has been lights-out in recent games, averaging 29.2 points, 8.3 assists, and 52.2 FanDuel points (FPs) over his last 10. The return of Darius Garland hasn't impacted Mitchell's fantasy output, and there's a lot to like in a pace-up spot with the Sacramento Kings tonight. Per FantasyPros, Sacramento has given up the eighth-most points to SGs this season.

Immanuel Quickley ($7,400) -- In 12 games with the Toronto Raptors, Immanuel Quickley is averaging 38.9 FPs per game (FPPG). He's been held under 30 FPs just twice over that span, so there's a nice floor in an advantageous matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans. New Orleans has dipped to 17th in defensive rating over their last 15 games, and they've given up the sixth-most FPPG to PGs in that time.

Malik Monk ($5,700) -- Malik Monk has gone for 40 FPs in two consecutive games...yet sits at $5.7K. There's a degree of risk with Monk -- prior to those two 40-pieces, he'd been held under 20 FPs in four straight -- but it's hard to find that much upside at this low of a salary. Although the Cleveland Cavaliers are a tough matchup across the board, but we can work with a 235 over/under. He went for 29 FPs in an earlier matchup with Cleveland, so there's at least an established floor.

Others to Consider

Luka Doncic ($12,600) -- Luka Doncic is questionable, and Kyrie Irving ($9,300) is probable. The Philadelphia 76ers have been stingy against PGs, but their D is likely to take a step back with Joel Embiid out. If Doncic plays, I won't argue against rostering him -- his 62.6-FP numberFire projection is by far the highest of the slate. Luka has cleared 60 FPs in seven straight games, exceeding 70 FPs five times over that span. Kyrie is only in play if Luka sits.

Tyrese Maxey ($9,400) -- Joel Embiid, Nicolas Batum, and De'Anthony Melton are out tonight while Tobias Harris is questionable. According to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ, Maxey has averaged 49.6 FPPG and a 33% usage rate with Embiid and Melton out. He's a strong pivot off Mitchell or Doncic.

Nick Smith ($3,800) -- The Charlotte Hornets have a pair of sub-$4K Smiths to choose from, and both open a lot of fun lineup possibilities. Ish Smith ($3,900) figures to be a popular salary-saver after he started on Sunday. He only netted 10.6 FPs in 25 minutes but went for 24.6 FPs in a 28-minute outing five games back. I prefer Nick Smith Jr.. He's eligible at either guard spot and played 20 minutes in two straight. Nick Smith flashed fantasy relevance earlier this year, averaging 16.2 FPs and 20 minutes over a 10-game stretch last month. A slate-low 108.25 implied total isn't ideal, but the Los Angeles Lakers have given up the 10th-most FPPG to PGs.

Wings

Top Plays

Kawhi Leonard ($9,300) -- Make sure Kawhi Leonard is active tonight (the Los Angeles Clippers are in the second leg of a back-to-back), but the matchup is there for him to produce. Atlanta is 27th in defensive rating and 4th in pace on the season, and they're among the 10-most fantasy-friendly matchups for opposing forwards. Kawhi continues to offer a stable floor (40 FPs in six of his last seven) and high ceiling (62.8 FPs three games ago).

Brandon Miller ($7,300) -- Over their last 30 games, the Lakers have given up the most FPs to SGs and the sixth-most to SFs. Considering Brandon Miller has gone for 50 FPs in back-to-back games, he's an intriguing mid-range target tonight. The rook has scored 20 points in 8 of his last 10 games, so there's a nice floor here, too.

Brandin Podziemski ($5,700) -- Brandin Podziemski continues to fill up the box score for the Golden State Warriors. After posting a 12-point, 14-assist double-double on Friday, Podziemski notched 15 points and 11 rebounds on Saturday. He went for 50.7 and 38.7 FPs across those two contests, and he hasn't played fewer than 25 minutes since early January. The Brooklyn Nets have given up the fifth-most FPPG to SFs, meanwhile Podziemski's 32-FP numberFire projection makes him second-best value on the slate as of Monday afternoon.

Others to Consider

Brandon Ingram ($8,100) -- Brandon Ingram has a great matchup with a Toronto defense that's 28th in defensive rating and has given up the most FPPG to SFs over the last 15 games. Ingram has started to heat up again, averaging 23.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.3 assists over his last three.

Mikal Bridges ($7,800) and Cam Thomas ($7,200) -- Mikal Bridges and Cameron Thomas are both in play against a Warriors defense that finished dead-last in defensive rating last month. Thomas scored at least 25 points in five straight while Bridges cleared 20 in 10 of his last 12. They could both feast considering Golden State has given up the most points to SFs over their last 15 games.

Kelly Oubre ($6,700) -- In five games without both Embiid and Melton, Kelly Oubre has averaged 35 FPs and 35 minutes per game. He posted a 25% usage in those outings. The Mavs give up the fourth-most FPPG to opposing SGs, so he's a strong mid-range option.

Terance Mann ($4,300) -- Terance Mann has been held under 20 FPs in four straight games, but he continues to see a healthy dose of minutes. Mann has quietly averaged the fourth-most minutes on the second leg of back-to-backs this season, and he could see a bump in usage if any of LA's stars sat. Even if everyone's active, a slate-high 122.25 implied total gives him a nice ceiling at a low salary.

Bigs

Top Plays

Anthony Davis ($11,300) -- There are only two truly elite bigs on the slate tonight, and I ever-so-slightly lean toward Anthony Davis as the top option. AD is questionable, but he played in their most recent contest, finishing with 56.1 FPs despite an ugly 4-of-12 shooting performance. His matchup is much easier tonight; Charlotte gives up the fourth-most FPPG to Cs, and they're 27th in rebound rate. Stay glued to LA's injury report.

Onyeka Okongwu ($6,000) -- Clint Capela is out for at least the next week, so we can confidently turn to Onyeka Okongwu in DFS. We only have a two-game sample with Capela out, but Okongwu averaged 34 minutes and 31 FPs across those two. He's fresh off his best performance of the season, scoring 22 points and grabbing 16 rebounds in a 47.2-FP effort against Golden State.

Mason Plumlee ($4,700) -- Though Ivica Zubac returned yesterday, he only saw 18 minutes compared to 26 for Mason Plumlee. In their second game in as many nights, expect Plumlee to see a heavy dose of minutes yet again. The matchup is ripe for fantasy production; Atlanta has given up the fifth-most FPPG to Cs, and they just lost Capela. He's numberFire's third-best value on the board regardless of position.

Others to Consider

Domantas Sabonis ($10,200) -- I can get behind Domantas Sabonis -- just don't expect a ceiling performance. Though he's exceeded 40 FPs in nine of his last 10, the Cavs are a top-10 fantasy defense to both big spots. They lead the league in defensive rating over the last 15 games, clocking in fifth in rebound rate over that span. Still, Sabonis went for 51.8 FPs in an earlier matchup against them and notched 61.6 and 44 FPs in last year's two meetings.

Paul Reed ($6,500) -- Paul Reed will be popular with Embiid out, but his salary has already seen a substantial increase. He's not a slam-dunk value, especially considering Dallas has given up the fewest FPPG to Cs over their last 15 games. In 14 games sans Embiid, Reed has averaged 28.9 FPs and 25 minutes per game.

Jakob Poeltl ($5,900) -- Jakob Poeltl went for 41.9 FPs in just his second game back from injury yesterday. Assuming he plays today, his 34.7-FP numberFire projection makes him the top point-per-dollar value on the slate.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.