FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks and Helper: Sunday 6/23/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks and Helper: Sunday 6/23/24

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to also incorporate numberFire's great tools into your research process, including daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, and batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.


Pitchers to Target

Sonny Gray ($10,700)

We're primed for a pitcher's duel in St. Louis. Logan Webb ($9,900) will toe the slab for the visiting San Francisco Giants, and Sonny Gray ($10,700) will look to hold down the fort for the home St. Louis Cardinals.

Given S.F.'s implied team total (3.37), it appears Gray is primed to do just that amidst the 34-year-old's breakout campaign. The right-hander's 2.95 ERA is 17th among all qualifiers and sits actually slightly higher than his skill-interactive ERA (2.93 SIERA). He's added a useful 31.4% strikeout rate for fantasy purposes has solid command behind a 7.3% walk rate.

Though it's warm in the midwest, the Giants aren't an incredibly imposing matchup. They have the league's ninth-worst OPS against right-handed pitching this month (.654) -- and a forgiving 22.9% strikeout rate in the split. They've been much better against lefties.

I had another name in this slot that is growing increasingly risky due to weather, but Gray is no slouch as a fallback option.

Bryce Miller ($9,800)

The Seattle Mariners' quintet of lethal righties is likely going to keep punishing the Miami Marlins today.

Seattle's George Kirby and Logan Gilbert have combined for 15 innings of 2-run baseball during their trip to South Florida, and Bryce Miller ($9,800) will be the benefactor of Miami's weak offense on Sunday. The Marlins have the league's worst wRC+ against righties in June (62) with its sixth-highest strikeout rate this month (24.6%). All things considered, they're the softest matchup for a pitching split today in a ballpark that leans toward favoring hurlers.

Miller definitely has more warts than Kirby or Gilbert, but he's capable of a huge day. While a 43.3% hard-hit rate allowed is somewhat concerning, Miller's 3.46 ERA still has a sub-4.00 SIERA and expected ERA (xERA) behind it. He's posted a modest strikeout rate (23.6%), too.

Balancing risk, the Fish carry a slate-low 3.26 implied team total into today's contest. They just don't seem to have the requisite bats to explode and exploit Miller's worst tendencies.

Others to Consider

  • Nick Lodolo ($10,500)
    • This is a double-edged sword matchup in a tiny park. Boston's .808 OPS against lefties in June is destructive, but they've also struck out 28.6% of the time against them this month. Lodolo is an intriguing tournament pivot.
  • Paul Skenes ($10,400) and Aaron Civale ($7,800)
    • This could have been my entire pitching section today, but there is significant risk of an in-game delay or postponement in Pittsburgh, per RotoGrinders' Kevin Roth. I respect his word enough to pivot when we have alternatives.

Stacks to Target

Detroit Tigers

Which Jonathan Cannon will arrive in Detroit today?

Cannon allowed 11 earned runs in his first three starts with the Chicago White Sox this season but has contained the damage to a single earned run in his most recent three. Given a 4.90 implied team total for the Tigers, oddsmakers are expecting the prior version of Cannon to return in some form.

It's easy to understand. The righty is in the 40th percentile worse in expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. He's been fortunate to find gloves, but a warm day in Detroit could change his fortune. Plus, Cannon still gives way to the league's worst sixth-worst bullpen by xFIP (4.44) when he departs.

If looking to target him with Detroit bats, it starts with Riley Greene ($3,200), who has torched righties for a .914 OPS and .251 ISO this season. Matt Vierling ($2,900) and Wenceel Perez ($2,800) also have ISOs north of .130 in the split, and Colt Keith ($2,600) fills second base with upside for steals.

Detroit only scored once yesterday, so I took notice when they're expected to bounce back in emphatic fashion today.

Texas Rangers

The defending champs are starting to find their mojo at the plate, and they'll draw Alec Marsh at the right time on Sunday.

Marsh was just chased after three innings when he allowed seven runs to the Oakland Athletics in Oakland. No matter an offense's struggles, they won't represent worse than the A's at home facing a righty.

That had been coming for the right-hander. He's 25th percentile or worse in xERA, xBA, and hard-hit rate allowed with just so-so upside for whiffs (22.5 K%). Part of the appeal in stacking against him also stems from a Kansas City Royals bullpen that's bled to the league's single worst xFIP this season (4.72).

Especially if using Miller, the marquee Rangers bats are key targets. Corey Seager ($3,600) has still crushed righties for an OPS of .871 this season and is joined by Josh Smith ($3,000) and Nathaniel Lowe ($2,900) above .725. It's been a difficult year for former All-Stars Marcus Semien ($3,500) and Adolis Garcia ($3,300) in this split, but a soft-tossing hurler like Marsh could be just what the doctor ordered.

Targeting K.C.'s right-hander will be a bit more popular today than it would have been before the A's exposed his peripherals, but it's still an optimistic outlook.

Others to Consider

  • Atlanta Braves
    • "Nasty" Nestor Cortes is coming off a gem against the Baltimore Orioles, but I'm still skeptical of his hefty flyball (48.3%) and hard-hit rate (44.3%). Atlanta will prey on weaknesses like that.
  • Cincinnati Reds
    • The visiting Boston Red Sox are offering up a bullpen game today, which might be positive news for Cincy that they won't see a right-hander throughout. Their 5.27 implied team total leads the entire slate.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.