FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks and Helper: Saturday 6/29/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks and Helper: Saturday 6/29/24

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to incorporate our MLB DFS projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- into your research process. numberFire also has the latest starting lineups and weather as well as heat maps to help you find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.


Pitchers to Target

Paul Skenes ($10,200)

Anytime that Paul Skenes ($10,200) is on the main slate, he needs to be a consideration at pitcher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates' top prospect has arguably lept all the way to the best pitcher in fantasy baseball already. He's eclipsed 28 FanDuel points in every game on the back of 11.85 K/9, and he's in the 85th percentile or better across the sport in expected ERA (2.65 xERA), expected batting average (xBA), and whiff rate.

On name value alone, the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park seem like a tough sell, but Atlanta has actually struggled against right-handed pitching in the wake of losing Ronald Acuna Jr., sporting a .654 OPS (6th-worst in MLB) and 23.1% strikeout rate (12th-highest) in the split this month.

There are plenty of top arms on this slate worth considering, but I prioritize Skenes' lower salary for the rare occasion that he might not be extremely popular.

Justin Steele ($9,600)

The Milwaukee Brewers are a completely different team against left-handed pitching, opening the door for us to consider Justin Steele ($9,600) as a slight road underdog (-106).

Steele has put forth another outstanding season for the Baby Bears, posting a 3.07 ERA that's validated by a 3.27 xERA. He's also in the 65th percentile or better in both strikeout rate and chase rate to create a bit of fantasy upside.

While I wish Milwaukee's strikeout rate against southpaws this month was a bit higher (21.9%), they've had a hard time plating runs -- to say the least. The Brewers' team .616 OPS against lefties this month is fifth-worst in MLB, and they've also got the fifth-lowest hard-hit rate (27.6%) in this time.

FanDuel Sportsbook has -165 odds that Steele records at least 18 outs in this game, and they've got his 5.5-strikeout prop labeled at -135. A quality start with at least six punchouts would be exactly what the doctor ordered to jam in this slate's top studs.

Our daily MLB projections expect 5.89 innings and 5.82 strikeouts from the lefty on Saturday, too.

Others to Consider

Stacks to Target

Arizona Diamondbacks

Gallen's Arizona Diamondbacks are still well worth targeting in this realm.

There might not be a greater fib in baseball at present than Hogan Harris' 2.72 ERA. Behind it lurks a 5.12 xERA, .271 expected batting average, and 10.5% barrel rate that otherwise suggests that Oakland's left-hander is primed to get pummeled in Chase Field, one of MLB's friendliest parks for hitters.

Plus, the Oakland bullpen has been scuffling of late. They possess the second-worst xFIP in baseball this month (4.92).

numberFire has Arizona projected for 5.92 runs, and we're going to want a piece of them if that projection comes to fruition.

I have to start a stack against a lefty with Ketel Marte ($3,600), who has clubbed lefties for a 262 wRC+ this month. Lourdes Gurriel ($3,000) and Randal Grichuk ($2,400) also have an OPS north of 1.000 in the split for June, and Blaze Alexander ($2,600) and Christian Walker ($3,400) are generally reliable bats despite so-so splits against left-handed pitching this month.

Arizona's 5.02 implied team total is no joke, and nF's algorithm expects better. I'm expecting a huge bounce back for them after losing 9-4 on Friday.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have this slate's highest implied team total (5.31), but one key factor pushed them to second in my rankings: health.

Both Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are out of the lineup at the moment, creating a dent in a Phillies order that otherwise has a saucy 116 wRC+ this month against righties.

The remaining pieces should be able to light up Roddery Munoz, though. Munoz has the worst xERA (6.72) among qualified starters in baseball, and a 46.5% flyball and 47.5% hard-hit rate allowed are a powderkeg for dongs. He's given up 3.53 HR/9 to this point entering baseball's sixth-best park for homers, per Statcast.

Alec Bohm ($3,300) and Brandon Marsh ($2,800) have an OPS of at least .940 this month in the split, so they're top priorities from a remaining cast that isn't doing too well against righties. I'd likely put Trea Turner ($3,500) next for his stolen-base upside, and Nick Castellanos ($2,700) has a .195 ISO despite poor on-base numbers. Kody Clemens ($2,500), rocking a cool .000 OPS in the split this month, might be a bit of a trap as a value play, though.

Philadelphia should be extraordinarily popular, but the stack potential beyond these two is a bit murky, so they're still worth targeting in spots.

Others to Consider

  • Chicago Cubs
    • In addition to Steele, I wouldn't write off the Cubbies' offense. Tobias Myers (4.14 skill-interactive ERA) is due for a bit of negative regression, and Milwaukee has a bottom-10 bullpen (by xFIP) this month.
  • Washington Nationals
    • Aaron Civale's 41.6% flyball rate and 40.2% hard-hit rate allowed are solid targets for home runs when the Nats have a few key bats that crush righties.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.