FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Saturday 10/7/23

The Wild Card round came and went with all four series ending in sweeps. Hopefully, we get a little more drama in the Division Series. The postseason picks back up on Saturday at 1:03 pm ET.

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to also incorporate numberFire's great tools into your research process, including daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, and batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Spencer Strider ($11,000) is making his 2023 postseason debut, and much like he was during the regular season, he's an easy choice as our SP1.

As a quick refresher, Strider wrapped up the regular season with the best strikeout rate (36.8%) and SIERA (2.86), and no one had more games with double-digit Ks (11).

The Philadelphia Phillies are an above-average offense with some pop, but it really wouldn't surprise anyone if their bats fall silent in this matchup. In four starts against Philadelphia this season, Strider has scored 49, 52, 55, and 55 FanDuel points.

Clayton Kershaw ($10,400) is facing a pretty average Arizona Diamondbacks offense, but he's probably someone to pass on due to the limited pitch counts and innings we've seen since he returned from the injured list in early August. Over the last eight starts, he's maxed out at five innings and hasn't surpassed 84 pitches.

Justin Verlander ($9,700) has been a curious case all year, as both a 4.56 xFIP and 4.43 SIERA point to regression, yet he continues to get the job done far more often than not with a 3.22 ERA. His 21.5% strikeout rate is the lowest we've seen in quite some time, and he should probably be giving up more than 1.00 dinger per 9 innings off a 44.8% fly-ball rate.

But even if Verlander has been a little lucky, it's still evident that he can mow guys down on days when he has his best stuff. In 12 of his 27 starts, he's recorded a strikeout rate of at least 25.0%, and he's even cracked 29.0% in 7 of those instances.

If we get that version of Verlander on Saturday, he'll be able to take advantage of a Minnesota Twins active roster with a 26.1% strikeout rate versus right-handers. On the other hand, if the 40-year-old isn't getting those swings and misses, then his high fly-ball rate could be punished by Minnesota's .182 ISO in the split.

Part of the appeal of Verlander in non-Strider lineups is the fact that starting anyone against the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros, or Texas Rangers isn't any any fun.

But if Joe Ryan ($9,200) gets the call against the Astros (still undetermined as of this writing), he could be worth a shot. While Ryan's endured a terrible home run problem all season, both his 3.44 SIERA and 3.53 xERA suggest there's been some poor luck on that front, and he's otherwise posted a fantastic 29.3% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate.

Despite the difficult matchup, we shouldn't discount Ryan's upside. He's logged 10 strikeouts six times this season, and one of them came against Houston in April.

Kyle Bradish ($9,500) is expected to start against the Rangers (again, undetermined), and while he was probably fortunate to post a 2.83 ERA, he put up some attractive numbers this year. Following the All-Star break, Bradish produced a 3.25 xFIP, 27.3% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate, and 53.3% ground-ball rate.

As someone who rarely gives up home runs, he might be able to suppress Texas' power, and the Baltimore Orioles showed a willingness to let him go 100-plus innings down the stretch.

Hitting Breakdown

The Atlanta Braves will presumably face Ranger Suarez, who would be one of the weaker starters on Saturday -- not that we ever need added incentive to stack the Braves. The left-hander clamps down on lefties with a 64.7% ground-ball rate, but he's mediocre when facing righties with a 4.37 xFIP, 22.4% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate, and 44.8% ground-ball rate.

Ronald Acuna Jr. ($4,700) -- and his 41 bombs and 73 swiped bags -- is a no-brainer if you can jam him in, but we can also happily roster any of Austin Riley ($4,000), Ozzie Albies ($3,900), Marcell Ozuna ($3,400), and Sean Murphy ($3,200).

Merrill Kelly has rarely found any success against the Los Angeles Dodgers, owning an 0-11 record with a 5.49 ERA over 16 career starts. While he's by no means a bad pitcher, his 9.6% walk rate can get him into trouble, and his 25.9% strikeout rate isn't always enough to offset that.

Mookie Betts ($4,400) it's always a logical addition, but Kelly does have slightly worse marks versus southpaws, bumping up Freddie Freeman ($4,200), Max Muncy ($3,900), and the Dodgers' value outfielders.

The Baltimore Orioles will likely face either right-hander Dane Dunning or left-hander Andrew Heaney. Dunning is vulnerable versus lefties (5.12 xFIP; 17.9% strikeout rate), while Heaney is a launching pad for dingers against righties (1.64 per 9 innings).

Switch-hitters Adley Rutschman ($3,700) and Anthony Santander ($3,500) are viable no matter who the starter is. Gunnar Henderson ($3,700), Cedric Mullins ($3,000), and Ryan O'Hearn ($2,800) are the top lefties if Dunning starts; righties Ryan Mountcastle ($3,100) and Austin Hays ($2,900) are appealing if it's Heaney.

Given Joe Ryan's home run problems, the Houston Astros are an option if he starts. And considering Verlander's low strikeout rate and signs of possible regression, you could also flip over to the other side with the Minnesota Twins.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.