FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 9/25/23

An unusual Monday schedule gives us a late main slate that won't begin until 9:38 pm ET, as all three night games are on the West Coast. We actually have quite the pitching selection for such a small slate; just one game has an implied team total above four runs.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Blake Snell ($11,500), Luis Castillo ($10,800), Logan Webb ($10,200), and Justin Verlander ($9,700) are all starting tonight, and when we throw in Jon Gray ($8,000) as a value play against the corpse of the Los Angeles Angels, we can realistically roster five of tonight's six pitchers with some level of confidence.

Even with a slate-high salary, Snell figures to be the most popular choice. He needs little explanation at this point, logging a quality start in eight straight outings and exceeding 50 FanDuel points in four of his last five. His 31.7% strikeout rate leads the slate by a fair margin.

Snell certainly plays with fire on a regular basis due to a 13.5% walk rate, but he's otherwise been so lights out that it hasn't come back to bite him often. While the San Francisco Giants are a solid offense, they're a good matchup for Ks, and Snell has dominated them this season for 61 and 52 FanDuel points over 12 scoreless innings.

Castillo is the only other pitcher with an above-average strikeout rate tonight (27.3%), but he has a tough matchup versus the Houston Astros. The good news is that could limit his popularity compared to Snell, which could give us a slight leg up if Snell's control issues finally get him in trouble.

If we're looking for another positive, it's that Castillo will face only two lefties, which will play to his strengths. In same-handed matchups, he sees improvements in all of xFIP (3.28), walk rate (4.9%), and ground-ball rate (48.7%).

Webb and Verlander are roughly average when it comes to punchouts, but the former otherwise has the better overall profile due to pristine marks in SIERA (3.21), walk rate (3.8%), and ground-ball rate (61.6%).

This is a tough matchup for Webb against the San Diego Padres, but he could still put up points through volume. He leads the league with 207 innings pitched and is tied for the most quality starts (23).

Verlander draws the better matchup against the Seattle Mariners, and particularly at his sub-$10,000 salary, he could end up being the most popular play outside of Snell. Against righties, Seattle's active roster has the league's fourth-worst strikeout rate (25.3%).

However, Verlander's 4.48 SIERA isn't very exciting, and his results have been mixed lately. He's priced at -136 to exceed 6.5 strikeouts on FanDuel Sportsbook, though.

Gray is purely a matchup-based play versus the Angels. What's left of the Halos' active roster is at an 86 wRC+ and 26.0% strikeout rate against righties.

The bad news? Gray's been absolutely awful over his last three outings (8, 11, and -2 FanDuel points). He's popped for some big games this season, though, so he's still worth considering on a small slate.

Hitting Breakdown

The lone pitcher who hasn't been mentioned yet, left-hander Patrick Sandoval, is naturally the matchup for tonight's obvious top stack, the Texas Rangers.

Sandoval owns a 4.90 SIERA, 19.8% strikeout rate, and 10.8% walk rate over 27 starts this season, which are all numbers we would still happily attack on a larger slate.

But the one area where the southpaw is a nuisance is that he allows just a 29.6% fly-ball rate, which has helped him limit home runs to just 0.76 per nine innings. Luckily, the Rangers are the right team to overcome this, as their active roster has the fourth-highest fly-ball rate against lefties.

Adolis Garcia ($3,600), Marcus Semien ($3,600), Josh Jung ($3,300), and Mitch Garver ($3,200) are the top righties to target, and Corey Seager ($4,400) is still a great option despite the lefty-lefty spot.

Keep in mind that Texas will almost certainly be the overwhelming chalk, so don't be afraid to get a little weird with the rest of your lineup when stacking them.

The aforementioned Los Angeles Angels may have a pretty meh lineup these days, but they're probably our next stop in case Jon Gray's woes continue. The right-hander has been much worse against lefties, showing a 4.93 xFIP, 19.9% strikeout rate, and 10.7% walk rate in the split.

Unfortunately, the best left-handed options leave a lot to be desired, but at least we get a value leadoff man in Nolan Schanuel ($2,900), and Mike Moustakas ($2,000), Jared Walsh ($2,500), and Brett Phillips ($2,200) have a little pop.

We find more talent amongst the righties, and Gray is roughly a neutral matchup for them, so you can also consider mixing in Brandon Drury ($3,000) and Logan O'Hoppe ($3,100), who are arguably the team's best active power hitters.

Attacking Verlander feels weird, but the Seattle Mariners may very well be our third-best option. As noted earlier, it's not like Verlander's advanced metrics leap off the page, and he's struggled in recent starts against the New York Yankees and even the Oakland Athletics.

And while Verlander hasn't been a huge source of load contact, the combination of a 21.1% strikeout rate and 44.7% fly-ball rate still leaves him susceptible to home runs. Julio Rodriguez ($4,400), Cal Raleigh ($3,300), Teoscar Hernandez ($2,900), and Eugenio Suarez ($2,900) are some of the top power options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.