FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 9/18/23

Most sports fans will probably have their eyes on tonight's two NFL matchups, but we still have an eight-game MLB DFS main slate to distract us, as well. This is a pretty deep selection of pitchers, too, as you can make the argument for most of the arms with salaries above $9,000.

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to also incorporate numberFire's great tools into your research process, including daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, and batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

Freddy Peralta ($10,800) continues to dominate down the stretch, and he has to be considered a top play even with a matchup on tap versus a strikeout-suppressing St. Louis Cardinals lineup.

Dating all the way back to late July, here are Peralta's last nine fantasy scores: 61, 40, 67, 46, 53, 43, 49, 19, and 53 points. That's pretty much one dud over nearly two months. Over this span, he's posted a downright silly 2.18 xFIP, 41.2% strikeout rate, and 5.5% walk rate.

Despite their record, the Cardinals are still an above-average offense against right-handers, and their active roster boasts the third-lowest strikeout rate (19.0%) in the split. There's no question that Peralta could have a tougher time producing a ceiling game here.

But we're talking about someone who's essentially been Spencer Strider -- if not better -- in the latter stages of the season. We should be firing up Peralta with full confidence tonight.

When accounting for salary, Lance Lynn ($9,200) is likely to end up as the slate's most popular pitcher.

That's because not only does he have just the eighth-highest salary, but he's facing the Detroit Tigers. Against righties, Detroit's active roster has the league's third-worst wRC+ (85) and ISO (.141), and they also have the sixth-worst strikeout rate (24.7%).

However, a quick look at Lynn's results shows why his salary isn't higher. He's been abysmal over his last five starts, producing a rotten 6.48 xFIP and 6.9% strikeout rate. This will be the easiest matchup he's seen in a while, but this is a concerning trend.

Still, if we assume this is just an odd cold streak, Lynn's season-long strikeout rate is a respectable 23.8%, and that jumps to 27.6% in same-handed matchups. He's projected to face six righties tonight, too.

Lynn's K prop is set at 6.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook, which just so happens to be the same as Peralta's. His recent play should have us worried, though, and if it sounds like he will be overwhelmingly popular, it might not be bad to fade him in tournaments.

Michael Wacha ($9,300) should also draw some attention as another matchup-based play. He's a thoroughly average pitcher, but the Colorado Rockies are so abysmal on the road that he has to be considered. Colorado's active roster comes in with a league-worst 76 wRC+ and 28.8% strikeout rate in away games. Their 3.19 implied team total is the slate's lowest.

Justin Verlander ($10,500) and Zack Wheeler ($10,000) have name value, but matchups against the Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves, respectively, aren't ideal. Wheeler's 27.3% strikeout rate is second-best on the slate, so he might be worth rolling the dice with -- but he also got rocked by these Braves just last week.

Lastly, while Bryan Woo ($9,700) is harder to like at a salary this high, he could be intriguing if the Oakland Athletics happen to use a righty-heavy lineup. Woo's put up a 29.5% strikeout rate in same-handed matchups compared to 18.0% when facing lefties. He'll probably be held under 90 pitches, which is something to keep in mind throwing near his hometown of Alameda, but he probably won't be very popular, either.

Hitting Breakdown

The Milwaukee Brewers are facing Adam Wainwright, who is somehow still making big league starts in spite of a 7.95 ERA. It's been ugly all around for Wainwright, but his numbers against left-handed batters are especially putrid. In the split, he's showing a 6.60 xFIP, 10.5% strikeout rate, and 12.3% walk rate.

We don't even need to break the bank to take advantage of this spot, as Christian Yelich ($3,300), Carlos Santana ($3,000), Sal Frelick ($3,000), and Rowdy Tellez ($2,600) will all have the platoon advantage at reasonable salaries. Frelick has limited power, but he's been hitting high in the order versus right-handers and projects to bat cleanup.

Of course, Wainwright is also getting roughed up by righty sticks (5.18 xFIP), so William Contreras ($3,200) and Willy Adames ($3,100) should be high on your list, too.

The San Diego Padres also have a fantastic matchup. Colorado lefty Ty Blach has a 13.5% strikeout rate and 39.1% ground-ball rate, a combination that makes him vulnerable to home runs.

Fernando Tatis Jr. ($3,800) and Manny Machado ($3,500) are no-brainers, and then Xander Bogaerts ($3,000) and Luis Campusano ($2,700) give us some value to work with. Jurickson Profar ($2,800) could bat leadoff again with Ha-Seong Kim dealing day-to-day due to an abdominal injury.

Kyle Wright came off the IL last week -- his first start since May -- and he was promptly lit up by the Philadelphia Phillies for six earned runs in three innings.

Well, the bad news for Wright is he's facing these same Phillies for the second time in a row. The right-hander had a breakout campaign in 2022, but until he proves he's that guy again, he looks like someone to stack against.

In this year's limited sample, Wright has struggled versus lefties, so Kyle Schwarber ($3,800) and Bryce Harper ($3,700) are the standouts. Righty Trea Turner ($4,100) is worth spending up for, too, as he's been on fire in the second half, flashing a .400 wOBA and .291 ISO. The rest of the lineup comes in at salaries of $3,200 and below.

The Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, and Texas Rangers are other offenses with high implied team totals to consider tonight, as well.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.