EPL Top Four Odds: Fourth Place Is Tottenham's to Lose

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
EPL Top Four Odds: Fourth Place Is Tottenham's to Lose

We're at the business end of the Premier League season, and there are still a ton of things to be decided.

There is a title race that's one of the most compelling we've seen in recent years. There is also a complicated relegation battle involving point deductions.

Today, we'll focus on the race for the top four using the EPL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. With the three title contenders (Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City) essentially having a top-four spot locked up, we'll focus on the teams directly below them.

Whoever wins this battle for fourth will have a guaranteed spot in next season's Champions League.

All EPL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

EPL Top Four Odds

Aston Villa+270

Tottenham (-220)

Currently in pole position to win this race for fourth, Tottenham have had a good season. There were a lot of question marks headed into the year, and they've dealt with them extremely well.

Spurs entered the season after finishing eighth in 2022-23. They replaced Antonio Conte with Ange Postecoglou at manager, giving the Australian a huge leap from managing Celtic to managing a team in England with huge ambition.

They also lost their captain and most important player, Harry Kane, when they sold him to Bayern Munich. Spurs didn't spend the money to replace him with any other striker, instead deciding on using the players already in their squad.

Currently, Tottenham has the same amount of points as Aston Villa with one fewer game played. They have a superior goal difference, as well, +20 to +17.

Despite having a strong season, Spurs don't look quite as good when looking at the underlying data. Their expected goal (xG) differential is just seventh in the league, per FBRef. But they've out-performed xG pretty much all season and are close to locking in a top-four spot.

Looking at the remaining fixtures, Tottenham still have to play Liverpool, Manchester City and bitter rivals Arsenal. They have another derby match at Chelsea, who they lost to at home earlier this season, and have a tough match at Newcastle this weekend.

All in all, Spurs' tough schedule will be the biggest hurdle for them to overcome.

Spurs are the favorites for a reason, and if they can overcome a difficult fixture list, this spot should be theirs.

Aston Villa (+270)

Aston Villa are proving that last season was no fluke. They made a charge to seventh place last season under Unai Emery. Emery took over as manager in November and transformed Villa into one of the best teams in England.

Villa were in a good position to get fourth before their last two matches. They lost to Manchester City, which is understandable, but a home draw against Brentford hurt them -- especially because they were ahead 2-0.

The underlying metrics suggest that Villa is a better side than Tottenham. They have an xG differential of +6.7, compared to +4.7 for Spurs.

Villa's remaining fixtures are not much easier than Tottenham's. They also have Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea still to play.

An added wrinkle for Aston Villa is the fact they are still in the Europa Conference League. This means they'll have at least two more midweek games to play in that competition and could have as many as five. That's tough for a squad that doesn't have elite depth.

I don't mind taking a chance on Villa at these odds. If Tottenham drop points in any of their next few games, these odds would change quickly. Villa get their matches against Liverpool and Chelsea at home, where they've been much better this season.

I see why Tottenham are the favorite, but the gap is a bit too wide in my opinion. That makes Villa's +270 odds enticing.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.