EPL Title Odds: Will Arsenal Hold Off Manchester City and Liverpool?

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere
EPL Title Odds: Will Arsenal Hold Off Manchester City and Liverpool?

The three-team title race for the English Premier League rages on. With seven games left for each of the three teams involved, we are nearing the final stretch of this exciting season.

Let's take a look at where the EPL title odds stand, per the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Here are the title odds for the top-three teams along with a breakdown of each.

Outright Winner 2023/24
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds
Man City+135

EPL Title Odds

Manchester City (+135)

Since our last update one month ago, Manchester City's title odds have shifted from +110 to +135. They currently sit in third on the table, one point behind both Liverpool and Arsenal. Despite that, they remain the favorite to lift the trophy.

The small shift in City's title odds has less to do with anything they did wrong and more to do with what Arsenal did right. In the three matches since our last update, City drew 0-0 at home with the Gunners and picked up 4-1 wins against both Aston Villa and Crystal Palace. On expected goals -- per FBRef -- City barely won against Arsenal, 1.0-0.7, but they don't award any points for that. Playing at home, it was a chance to make a move in the title race, and City failed to do, allowing Arsenal to clear a major hurdle in the Gunners' difficult remaining schedule.

The good news for City -- and perhaps the reason they remain the title favorite -- is their remaining schedule is excellent. Over their final seven matches, they face two sides in the bottom four and only two teams ranked inside the top seven -- vs. West Ham (seventh) and at Tottenham (fourth). Those two matches will be their final two fixtures of the season.

City's fate is not in their own hands, but they are in an excellent position to keep the pressure on Arsenal and Liverpool. A single draw from both and City could be back in full control of the title race. City aren't as dominate this season as they have been in the past, but they are certainly still good enough to get the job done.

Arsenal (+170)

The largest change in the title odds since our last update has been the Gunners' shift from +240 to +170. The movement took them from third on the odds table to second and within touching distance of Manchester City.

The Gunners sit on top of the table alongside Liverpool, significantly ahead of Liverpool on goal difference (nine goals ahead) and one point ahead of Manchester City in third. Arsenal's edge on goal difference is crucial, and it will only grow in importance the closer we get to the end of the season. They hold the tiebreaker, and the pressure is on Liverpool and City to pass them on points.

Arsenal earned their positive odds shift by securing a draw on the road against City. They backed that up with a 2-0 win over Luton and a 3-0 victory against Brighton. They now have 10 wins and just one draw in their 11 EPL matches in 2024 with a combined scoreline of 38-4. They have kept more clean sheets in 2024 (seven) than goals allowed. Their underlying metrics suggest they are the best team in the league, but to claim the title, they will have to overcome a difficult schedule.

Over their final seven games the Gunners face three top-six sides (vs. Aston Villa, at Tottenham and at Manchester United) and two additional sides that sit inside the top 11 (vs. Chelsea and at Wolves). Arsenal are certainly good enough to overcome that slate of opponents, but the margin for error is extremely small. All it takes is a draw and their fate could be out of their own hands.

Liverpool (+220)

Arsenal's gain has been Liverpool's loss. Since our last update, the Reds' title odds have not changed, but they were leapfrogged by the Gunners on the odds table and now sit in third. They sit in second on the league table, behind Arsenal on goal differential and one point ahead of Manchester City.

Liverpool have no one to blame but themselves for their slide down the odds table. They had a golden opportunity to move two points clear of Arsenal at the top of the table and failed to take advantage, drawing 2-2 on the road against Manchester United. The result was a harsh one -- on xG, Liverpool dominated the match 3.6-0.7, but it was the second time in a month their hopes a trophy were hurt by their rivals from Manchester.

The good news for Liverpool is that they remain ahead of Manchester City on points and their fate is almost in their own hands. If Arsenal drop points and the Reds win out, the title is Liverpool's no matter what the defending champions do.

Liverpool's remaining schedule is split into two parts. First up, an easier stretch of three games -- vs. Crystal Palace, at Fulham and at Everton. After that, a difficult stretch of three games at West Ham, vs. Tottenham, and at Aston Villa before their final match of the season at home against Wolves. With the difficult part of Arsenal's schedule overlapping with the easier part of Liverpool's schedule, there is a possibility the Reds will enter their difficult stretch of games sitting on top of the table. If they do, there will be added pressure.

A path is certainly there for Liverpool to win the league, but to do so, they can't afford any more dropped points to lesser opposition.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.