EPL Title Odds: Can Arsenal Overcome a Difficult Schedule?

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere
EPL Title Odds: Can Arsenal Overcome a Difficult Schedule?

We officially have a three-team title race in the English Premier League. After a long stretch of Manchester City either running away with the title or pulling ahead in a two-team race down the stretch, this season’s title race is set up for a much more dramatic finish.

When Liverpool won in 2019-20, they did so by 18 points. We have not seen a title race like this in a long time. With 10 games left, Manchester City, Liverpool, and Arsenal are separated by a single point at the top of the table. Game on!

Let's take a look at where the EPL title odds stand, per the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Here are the title odds for the top-five teams along with a breakdown of the three main contenders.

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds
Man City+110
Aston Villa+28000

Premier League Title Odds

Manchester City (+110)

Since our last update one month ago, the defending champions have seen their odds move from –210 to +110. They currently sit in third on the table, one point behind both Liverpool and Arsenal. Importantly, they are currently behind both on goal differential, as well.

Despite this, they remain the favorites to lift the trophy. Over the past month, City are undefeated in five EPL fixtures, but they failed to capitalize on two matches, earning draws with Chelsea and Liverpool. Outside of their 3-1 victory over Manchester United, their wins have also been far from convincing with 1-0 scorelines over both Brentford and Bournemouth.

City remains an elite side, though. They rank second in goals/90 (2.21) and are tied for second in xG/90 (2.02), per FBref. They rank third in goals allowed per 90 (0.96) and second in xG allowed/90 (0.99). Their xGD/90 of +1.04 ranks second.

What is different from years past is that instead of being far above the rest of the EPL, City are very similar to both Arsenal and Liverpool. They have come down slightly from the +1.22 xGD/90 they finished last season with, and both the Gunners and the Reds have raised their level of play.

That said, City have two things going for them in this title race -- experience and schedule. City are going for their fourth title in a row and sixth in seven seasons. Every title race is different, but the moment will not be too big for a City side that has been here numerous times under Pep Guardiola.

City is about to enter a difficult stretch of EPL fixtures. Over their next three matches, they face Brighton away and Arsenal and Aston Villa at home. After that, things clear up in a big way. Over their last seven fixtures, City faces only one team, Tottenham, currently inside the top-six on the table and faces just three teams in the top half. If they gain a lead at the top of the table, the path to maintain it down the stretch is clear.

Liverpool (+220)

Liverpool’s odds have shifted slightly since our last update, going from +250 to +220. The gap between their odds and City’s odds has shortened drastically. Their implied odds to win (31.3%) are now within shouting distance of City’s implied odds (47.6%). Said another way, by implied odds, it is now more likely that someone other than City wins the title than not. That alone is a massive shift from the past four seasons.

The Reds rebounded well from their 3-1 loss to Arsenal in early February, picking up four consecutive victories by a combined score of 12-3. Their momentum was halted by a 1-1 draw with Manchester City in their most recent EPL fixture. While a draw with City is rarely a bad result, Liverpool was at home and may look back at that fixture as a missed opportunity when it's all said and done.

As it stands, the Reds are second on the table, tied with Arsenal on points and behind by seven on goal differential. Their underlying metrics support that position. They rank third in goals/90 (2.18) and first in xG/90 (2.24). On defense, they rank second in goals allowed/90 (0.89) and third in xG allowed/90 (1.23). Their xGD/90 (+1.00) ranks third.

In terms of their remaining schedule, Liverpool has a mixed bag the rest of the way. Three of their next five opponents include Everton, Sheffield, and Crystal Palace, along with Manchester United and Brighton. The hurdle for the Reds is their tough finishing stretch. Their last four fixtures are all against top-10 opponents, including clashes at home against Tottenham and on the road against Aston Villa. Regardless of if they are trying to maintain a lead or make up ground, Liverpool will have a difficult finish.

The good news for the Reds is that their full focus can be on the title race. Unlike Arsenal and Manchester City, they are not still in the Champions League and will not have to deal with playing in two competitions that are both the highest of priorities.

In Jurgen Klopp’s final season, the Reds are well-positioned to take home the title.

Arsenal (+240)

Since our last update, no team’s title odds have improved as much as Arsenal’s, shifting from +650 to +240. They now have implied odds of 29.4%, slightly behind Liverpool. The Gunners sit on top of the table, one point ahead of Manchester City and ahead of Liverpool on goal differential.

The Gunners are undefeated in their eight EPL fixtures in 2024. Since their three-game winless streak at the end of December, they have been nearly flawless, with a combined scoreline of 33-4 in those eight matches, including a 3-1 win over Liverpool and a 4-1 win over Newcastle.

While they have the lowest implied odds, the underlying metrics indicate that Arsenal may be the best team in the EPL. They rank first in goals/90 (2.39) and are tied for second in xG/90 (2.02). Their defense has been their strength all season. They rank first in goals allowed/90 (0.82) and xG allowed/90 (0.69). They rank first in xGD/90 (+1.33) by a significant margin over Manchester City (+1.04) and Liverpool (+1.00).

The Gunners’ xG/90 has solid historical significance. It is the third-best mark since the 2019-20 season, only bested by City (+1.68) and Liverpool (+1.45) in 2021-22. It would have been good enough to win the title in 2022-23 and 2021-22 and finish second behind only City during their incredible run in 2018-2020. Arsenal has put together a campaign worthy of a title thus far; now they need to maintain it and finish the job, something they failed to do last season.

The bad news for the Gunners is they have the most difficult remaining schedule of the teams in the title race. Their next two matches are at home against Chelsea and on the road against Manchester City. Their eight matches after that include clashes with Brighton, Aston Villa, Tottenham, and Manchester United. In total, over their 10 remaining matches, Arsenal will face seven top-11 sides, including three in the top five.

Add a quarterfinal clash with Bayern Munich in the Champions League to the mix, and it becomes clear -- Arsenal has their work cut out for them. The good news for the Gunners is that, unlike in previous seasons, this team has the talent and experience to rise to the occasion. They are good enough; they just need to continue to perform at their current level.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.