Soccer

EPL Betting Picks for Wednesday 4/3/24: Arsenal Set for Complete Domination

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
EPL Betting Picks for Wednesday 4/3/24: Arsenal Set for Complete Domination

More midweek matches means more betting opportunities for our Wednesday afternoon.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this match day?

EPL Betting Picks: Wednesday 4/3/24

Brighton at Brentford (2:30 PM ET)

Brighton Moneyline (+175)

Most of the matches on Wednesday are fairly large mismatches. This game is the one exception.

These teams are coming off of opposite performances over the weekend. Brentford played exceptionally well against Manchester United at home on Saturday. They created 3.2 expected goals (xG) and conceded just 0.6, according to FBRef.com. They were disappointed to only end up with a draw.

Brighton suffered a defeat against Liverpool where they were thoroughly beaten. This isn't unexpected against the league leaders, but the Seagulls have typically played well against Liverpool in recent matches.

These two recent results don't really change my outlook on these two teams. Brighton has been one of the best teams outside of the "big six" over the past two seasons. While they haven't played as well of late, they still have a positive 0.15 xG differential per 90 minutes this season.

Brentford have closed the gap between these two teams in that department -- especially after this weekend. They average +0.08 xG per 90 now.

Both teams are missing a lot of players, but Brentford are perhaps missing the more important players. They are without several key defenders, which might hurt them against Brighton. The Seagulls have created the ninth-most xG in the league this season.

I still believe that Brighton are the better side here even on the road. So, getting the +175 odds on them to win has value.

Luton at Arsenal (2:30 PM ET)

Arsenal to Win Both Halves (-110)

This is a lopsided matchup, so we'll have to get creative in how we approach this from a betting perspective.

Arsenal come into this game off of a draw against Manchester City in a huge game that could have impacted the title race significantly. Instead, the draw basically leaves things as they were and benefitted Liverpool the most. The Gunners are two points off the top at the moment.

Where Arsenal lead the league is in their xG differential. They are ahead of both Man City and Liverpool in this metric. Arsenal are actually the third-best team in Europe's big five leagues (England, Germany, Italy, Spain, France) in xG differential per 90.

They'll face Luton Town, who have now dropped into the relegation zone after their loss on Saturday. They have the second-worst xG differential in the Premier League and fifth-worst in Europe's "big five".

Everyone knows that Arsenal are a much better side than Luton, especially the sportsbooks. The Gunners are a -1000 moneyline favorite in this game. However, there is a market that should offer value.

Arsenal should be in complete control of this game. They also can't take Luton too lightly as they need the points and the chance to better their goal difference in the title race.

That's why I'm going with Arsenal to win both halves at just -110. There is a huge gap in talent between these two teams, and Arsenal shouldn't have much of a problem winning both halves. That gap between the moneyline and this line makes this bet interesting.

Arsenal have won both halves in five of their last nine Premier League matches, and two of the times they didn't were against Liverpool and Man City. When facing teams as weak as Luton, they've tended to take care of business.

Player Props

Bukayo Saka to Assist (+120): If we expect Arsenal to score plenty in this matchup, then we should see Bukayo Saka involved quite a bit.

Saka has eight assists in Premier League matches this season. Only five players have more. He takes corner kicks for Arsenal, which should give him opportunities to provide a goal for a teammate.

Luton have allowed the most xG in the league, and against a team like Arsenal, they could concede a handful of goals. It wouldn't be surprising if Saka created one, and we're getting +120 on that happening.

Pascal Gross to Score or Assist (+170): Pascal Gross is one of the players that has more assists than Saka; his 10 are tied for the most in the league.

Gross isn't nearly the same goal threat that someone like Saka is, playing deeper and only scoring four this season. There is a factor for this match that could give him a better chance than normal to score.

Joao Pedro is the normal penalty taker for Brighton, but he's unlikely to start this match. Gross has taken and scored the only penalty when Joao Pedro has been out this season.

Given that he's facing a Brentford team that has conceded the fourth-most goals in the EPL, I like the odds of Gross contributing to a goal.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.