Dolphins-Chiefs: Spread, Total, Breakdown and Best Bet for Clash of AFC Elites

Frankly, I'm a little jealous of the fans in Frankfurt this weekend.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins will head to Germany's fifth-most populous city for a gridiron game at Deutsche Bank Stadium. With two high-flying offenses on hand, star quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa are sure to deliver a show.

For reference, this will be just the second NFL regular season game ever played in Deutschland. Last year, Munich had the luxury of hosting a close contest between the Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

In 2023, the Chiefs and 'Fins will kick off Germany's action this Sunday morning at 9:30 a.m. ET. The Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots will be in Frankfurt for Week 10.

With kickoff swiftly approaching for Miami-Kansas City, let's dive into the odds and lines, keeping an emphasis on the most valuable of the traditional betting markets.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs Betting Odds: Spread, Moneyline and Total

Kickoff: Sunday (Nov. 5), 9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network

Spread: KC -1.5

Moneyline:

• MIA: +106
• KC: -124

Total: 50.5

Dolphins vs. Chiefs Matchup Analysis

As arguably the two best teams in the AFC right now, Dolphins-Chiefs might just be the most anticipated contest to this point in 2023. Of course, on display this weekend in Germany will be premiere quarterback play, electric pass catchers and a long-awaited reunion.

Miami wide receiver Tyreek Hill will have his very first chance to inflict his speedy wrath on the franchise that selected him in the fifth round of the 2016 NFL Draft. A Super Bowl LIV champion with Kansas City, Hill will attempt to show the Chiefs how it feels to be on the other side of one of his trademark long touchdowns.

Through just eight games, "Cheetah" is already over 1,000 receiving yards in 2023 behind an average of 16.6 yards per catch; I'd expect him to impact this contest early and often. Still, the 'Fins have more than just Hill. With Raheem Mostert, the two playmakers have accounted for three of the five fastest ball carrier speeds this year. Additionally, Jaylen Waddle is heating up after coming back from injury -- we've seen that penguin touchdown dance in three of Miami's past four games.

Let us not get ahead of ourselves, though; Kansas City is still the defending champions, led by the reigning AP MVP in Patrick "Showtime" Mahomes. He and the Chiefs are currently licking their wounds after losing to the Denver Broncos last week for the first time since 2015. Regardless, I don't anticipate Kansas City to be deterred by that on foreign soil.

All-World tight end Travis Kelce is having a year for the books -- on and off the field. Aside from his budding romantic relationship with pop star Taylor Swift, Kelce leads all players at his position in both touchdown (4) and first-down (31) receptions. On the international stage, I imagine Kelce makes his presence felt this weekend.

Dynamic players Isiah Pacheco (four total scores in 2023) and Rashee Rice (12.0 yards per catch) round out Kansas City's offensive skill group this year, and both have big-play capability. However, it has been the Chiefs' defense that has turned more heads in the current campaign. K.C. is allowing only 16.1 PPG at the moment, which is the second-best clip in the NFL.

Led by All-Pro defensive lineman Chris Jones (5.5 sacks), Kansas City absolutely warrants respect on that side of the ball. However, with mike-backer Nick Bolton recently placed on IR with a fractured wrist, will the unit lose some pop? You can count on Miami head coach Mike McDaniel trying to exploit that void.

For the 'Fins, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey made his teal debut last weekend. In his first game, Ramsey logged a 49-yard interception along with one pass defensed. Undeniably, the All-Pro corner looked fresh last Sunday against the Pats. Considering Miami's defense is currently ranked way down at 25th in scoring D, Ramsey returned at perhaps the perfect moment.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs Best Bet

Over 50.5

Well, we have the 6-2 Chiefs atop the AFC West with the 6-2 Dolphins pacing the AFC East. In a potential conference title game preview, who has the edge?

Genuinely, I am stuck when it comes to the sides in this contest. Both teams have clear paths to victory, but execution is always easier said than done. Kansas City (sixth) and Miami (first) are each among the top teams in the league, per numberFire's metrics, with nERDs less than 1.5 points apart, so this really is similar to splitting hairs.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, let's root for points. Between all the offensive star power referenced above in combination with the absence of Bolton on Kansas City's defense, I think there is potential for a high number of points to be scored.

Without Bolton last week, K.C. gave up three passing scores to Russell Wilson and the Broncos. They also allowed exactly 20 points to both the Jets and Vikings in games Bolton missed. Simply, I think Tua and Miami can go for more than that.

The Dolphins are scoring a league-leading 33.9 PPG right now while Kansas City has produced 23.4 PPG (for a sum of 57.3). When comparing that with the game projections at numberFire, their model shows a razor-tight winning score of 26.9-26.5 for Miami. That would leave us in the neighborhood of 53.4 total points.

What better way to watch than by rooting for touchdowns from some of the game's most electric playmakers? I'm going over 50.5 in Frankfurt -- over and out!

For this contest, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a special Gronk Same Game Parlay from -- you guessed it -- future NFL Hall-of-Famer Rob Gronkowski. With four legs exclusive to Dolphins-Chiefs in Germany, Gronk's parlay features offensive props on some of the biggest names in the NFL. Visit FanDuel Sportsbook's promos page for full details.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.