College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 10/14/23

With daily fantasy football being so popular, it was only a matter of time before it translated to the college level.

FanDuel now offers college football daily fantasy contests in most states, and there's a twist on the NFL ruleset. You select a quarterback, two running backs, three wideouts (which includes tight ends), and a "SuperFLEX" that can be any of those positions.

Finding target data for pass-catchers in college can be difficult, so figuring out which players are on the field and getting work can make all the difference. Naturally, there are also more lopsided outcomes in college, so balance game scripts appropriately! Your running back's monstrous first half could lead to a bagel in the second.

Week 7 presents a lot of tight games. Of the 14 games on the main slate, 9 have a spread of no larger than 4.0 points. All totals in those games are also between 50 and 60 points. That means that one game shouldn't be extraordinary popular, and picking the right game stack should be crucial.

Note: All stats are from PFF.com. All tables are sortable by any category.

The Slate

"Choose your own adventure" books exist similarly to how this slate is a "choose your own game stack".

With nine games having spreads of 4.0 or less, we should have plenty of competitive affairs on Saturday, and some with slightly larger spreads also have totals over 60.0. There are so many quality options that could work out in tournaments.

With that said, the 67.5-point total between the Oregon Ducks and Washington Huskies will garner plenty of attention -- and rightfully so as two of the best offenses in college football meet. That one also has a 2.5-point spread; it'll be a cash-game darling.

Of the "others", the market shares seem to shape up well between the Missouri Tigers and Kentucky Wildcats with a 51.5-point total that might go overlooked. If it exceeds that total, we can truly pin down about six players with enough work to be candidates as the reason why.

I'm really just writing off the three spreads eclipsing two touchdowns with at least one elite defense in the contest. The Florida State Seminoles are likely to overwhelm the Syracuse Orange after what we saw last Saturday, and the Alabama Crimson Tide and Ohio State Buckeyes don't figure to face much adversity, either.

Quarterbacks

Top Plays

• Caleb Williams ($11,700)
  • With a game total of 60.5, it'd have been farfetched to expect him not to be the highest-salaried QB on the slate before the season. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish surrendered 33 offensive points to the Louisville Cardinals offense last week, so I no longer see them as a prohibitive matchup for the chosen one.
  • Caleb's value also comes from accessing USC's implied total with disastrous market shares at wide receiver.
• Bo Nix ($11,300)
  • Oregon has barely been threatened this season, so Nix's rushing volume (19.3 yards per game) is significantly less than his 510 yards and 14 rushing scores from last year. Perhaps this high-flying matchup with UDub changes that.
  • Michael Penix Jr. ($11,400) is a true pocket-passer for Washington at basically the same salary; I'd rather use his wideouts with Nix.
• Will Howard ($10,500)
  • The Kansas State Wildcats were upset last week by the Oklahoma State Cowboys, but Howard's floor remained supremely high despite an off night throwing the ball. He added 104 yards and a score on the ground. K-State's backfield is an awesome stack in a projected shootout with the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
• Payton Thorne ($7,400)
  • Most will consider the signal-caller from the LSU Tigers' side, but Thorne is projected to trail as an 11.5-point underdog and has added the typical Auburn Tigers rushing effort from a QB (50.4 yards per game). His salary is crazy low when LSU is 124th in FBS in yards per play (YPP) allowed (6.4).

Others to Consider

• Jayden Daniels ($12,600)
  • It's hard to turn away a QB averaging 332.6 passing and 84.7 rushing yards per game, but his salary has reached a prohibitive level. I might just stick to LSU's key contributors at other positions; his 37.6 FanDuel-point-per-game average is now the expectation at this mark -- not a ceiling.
• Drake Maye ($10,800)
  • With Maye's full stable of pass-catchers back, the North Carolina Tar Heels' target tree is a mess for the first time in his collegiate career. It increases his appeal when he is capable of adding on the ground himself (45.0 rushing yards per game), too.
• Jason Bean ($8,800)
  • I wish this was the injured Jalon Daniels, but the senior Bean contributes when rushing (40.7 yards per game) and the wideout market shares for the Kansas Jayhawks are poor. I may not get here personally, but he's a must if you desire to stack Kansas-Oklahoma State.
• Spencer Rattler ($8,200)
  • Unlike Nix, he's actually increased his contributions on the ground to 40.6 yards per game in 2023. The South Carolina Gamecocks' affair with the Florida Gators is near the bottom of the totals on the main slate (51.5), but it's a good total in a vacuum with excellent market shares in some spots.

Running Backs

Top Plays

• Ray Davis ($10,400)
  • The former Vanderbilt Commodores lead back hasn't had any issues in Lexington with a 63.5% rush share and 10.7% target share (fifth on the slate among RBs). He put up 50.3 FanDuel points on Florida; he'll be part of that Mizzou-UK stack that I most covet among the similar games.
• Tahj Brooks ($9,200)
  • After losing their starting quarterback, Tech has let Brooks take the wheel. He had 31 carries for 170 yards last week and is set to face a KSU defense that just got pummeled for 174 rushing yards by Oklahoma State. Considering the environment, he's a five-digit back at a discount.
• Logan Diggs ($8,300)
  • After starting the year in a committee for the Tigers, he's taken over as the clear lead back with a score in three straight games. Diggs is up to a 51.1% rush share overall, and this could be LSU's most positive script to date.
• LJ Martin ($7,400)
  • This salary is almost a mistake. With the Brigham Young Cougars and TCU Horned Frogs pegged for a potential shootout, Martin has four touchdowns in three games inside this pro-style offense that leans on him at the goal line.
  • Emani Bailey ($9,100) makes for a unique RB-RB stack of this game when he's gotten 20.3 totes per game on the other side for TCU.

Others to Consider

• Audric Estime ($9,300)
  • Notre Dame's big-bodied back is a threat for multiple scores any time they are projected to put up points. Are there concerns for this offense against last week's total dud against Louisville? Sure. Are they super present against a USC defense that let the Arizona Wildcats drop 41 points? Not really.
• DJ Giddens ($8,600)
  • There's still a decent split here with Treshaun Ward ($7,200), who got nine carries returning from injury last week, but Giddens' 13.3% target share also leads the slate amongst RBs. He's, oddly, the best pass-catcher to stack with Howard thanks to his touchdown equity.
• MarShawn Lloyd ($7,500)
  • He's slowly becoming the second viable USC Trojan in DFS. Lloyd has received 77.8% of their RB carries in the past two weeks even though he was vultured in OT last week. This salary is fairly low in one of the best games of the day should Williams' salary be too much to handle.
• Cody Schrader ($7,100)
  • In Week 4, Schrader only got 58.8% of Mizzou's running back carries and seemed destined for a committee with Nathaniel Peat ($5,400). He's inefficient (4.4 YPC in 2022), so that was a disaster. Last week against LSU, he earned 13 of 15 chances. I think we can go back to him at this salary if he plays.
  • If Schrader is ruled out, Peat -- a senior -- should be alone in this backfield.

Wide Receivers

Top Plays

• Malik Nabers ($10,500)
  • Nabers has eclipsed 25 FanDuel points in three of his past four games with a sizzling 34.5% target share. If Brian Thomas Jr. ($9,400) didn't have 6 touchdowns from his last 17 catches, Nabers would be the rare wideout with a salary over $11,000. This feels like a gift.
• Luther Burden III ($9,600)
  • One of college football's best stories, Burden came from nowhere to contend for this year's Biletnikoff. He leads this slate in target (39.3%) and yardage (40.9%) share for his team, and his numbers could be even larger if Theo Wease ($7,500) didn't have a touchdown in three straight. He's a great mini-stack with Ray Davis.
• Xavier Restrepo ($8,200)
  • The Miami (FL) Hurricanes' target shares with Mario Cristobal haven't been reliable -- a shocker from the author of this. Still, Restrepo is building his case as their indisputable No. 1 target with a 29.3% target share. The Canes are a short underdog, which should keep him busy -- but popular -- as a bring-back option to the high-powered Tar Heels.
  • He'll only benefit if JaColby George ($7,700) ends up sitting for this one after an injury last week.
• Ricky Pearsall ($7,600)
  • Once just a short-yardage option, Pearsall's leap in ability has been remarkable. Overall, he's crushed all other Gators pass-catchers at 7.3 targets per game, and with a full-blown committee in UF's backfield, he's the obvious choice to run back any usage of Spencer Rattler.

Others to Consider

• Rome Odunze ($10,100), Troy Franklin ($9,900), and Jalen McMillan ($9,700)
  • Oregon-Washington should have several pieces involved since none of these top targets have above a 25.0% target share, but these are the three leaders.
  • McMillan is iffy to play after missing Washington's last three contests. I'd prefer he sit to target Odunze, but that doesn't appear to be the case.
  • Franklin's 22.7% target share is underwhelming, but he's amassed 33.2% of Oregon's passing yardage. He's actually my favorite target of the three with a deep-ball monopoly for the Ducks.
• Xavier Legette ($8,900)
  • South Carolina's big-play threat (38.8% yardage share) is a great tournament option if the Gamecocks are to put up points. He's getting legitimate work with 7.6 targets per game, too.
• Chase Roberts ($7,700)
  • BYU's passing volume much more resembles an NFL team, so Roberts' 25.1% target share is a pretty good role. Tight end Isaac Rex ($6,000) was held to just one catch last time out, and I thought Rex's early-season surge was a mirage. Roberts, a sophomore, has 11 catches for 220 yards -- and huge plays amongst them -- in his past two games.
• Barion Brown ($6,700)
  • Kentucky works primarily through the ground game, but they go to Brown (26.5% target share) when they throw. He's a value play and touchdown candidate in a game with several other desirable pieces.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.