Churchill Downs Racing Picks: Stephen Foster Stakes Day, 6/28/2025

Key Takeaways:

• For the Stephen Foster Stakes, Mystik Dan is a top pick after a strong win in the Blame Stakes over this same track and distance. His versatility, Churchill Downs form, and proven ability on a wet track make him a dangerous contender.
• Mindframe also offers strong value, having won back-to-back races, including a G1 at Churchill in the slop. Though he’s unproven around two turns at this level, his pedigree and past performances suggest he can handle it.
• In the Kelly’s Landing (G3), Happy Is a Choice and Durante are solid mid-price options who could capitalize on a fast pace; both have solid Churchill form and handle off tracks.
• In Race 4, El Magnifico is a strong contender if speed holds, while Pure Class could be a value closer at 12-1, especially if the early pace collapses.

The top horses in the handicap division line up Saturday, June 28, in the Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs. Stars including Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Sierra Leone, Dubai World Cup winner Hit Show, and more will line up for a $1 million purse and an automatic bid to the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

That feature is only one of six stakes races on the card. The reigning Horse of the Year, Thorpedo Anna, tries to get back on track in the Fleur de Lis (G2), which awards the winning horse a bid to the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Booth takes on West Coast foes Dr. Venkman and Roll On Big Joe in the Kelly’s Landing (G3). And, there are three more stakes on the Churchill Downs turf course: the Wise Dan (G2) for older horses, the American Derby for three-year-olds, and the Tepin for sophomore fillies.

The action gets underway Saturday at 12:45 p.m. EDT. Make sure to check the program on race day for scratches and changes before placing your bets. As of midweek, the forecast calls for storms on Saturday, which may lead to scratches but can also lead to good betting opportunities on horses who run better on a wet track.

Churchill Downs Picks

Race 4 - $62,500 claiming, seven and a half furlongs on dirt - El Magnifico, Pure Class

FanDuel odds: 3-1 and 12-1

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This race features a mix of allowance horses stepping down and claimers inching up in class. The 7 ½-furlong distance is uncommon, but bodes well for horses who are extended sprint specialists. Looking at horses with good form at seven furlongs or the one-turn mile makes sense in this spot, too.

El Magnifico (3-1) is one of the pace horses. He won’t have an easy time up front with the likes of Loco Abarrio and Chasing Time in the field, but three starts back, he battled on the pace and ran on to win over seven furlongs at Keeneland. So, he should have the grit. His next two starts have come at two turns, including a first-level allowance win last out, but that should just give him fitness for the turnback. And, his win last out came over muddy Churchill Downs dirt, meaning the footing should suit.

If speed does not hold, Pure Class (12-1) has a good chance to reel it in. He has spent most of his career in protected company, though two back he was dropped in for a $50,000 tag and won as if he had found his friends. He has never tried the 7 ½-furlong trip he’ll go today, but that two-back win came at a flat seven, and there may be enough stamina underneath to get him the extra half furlong. He also hit the board the only time he ran over an off track.

Race 9 - Kelly’s Landing (G3), six furlongs on the dirt - Happy Is a Choice, Durante

FanDuel odds: 10-1 and 8-1

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The pace should be a lively one with Booth and Roll On Big Joe doing their best work on the front end, and Otto the Conqueror and Dr. Venkman not likely to be too far away, either. Happy Is a Choice could take advantage for connections who are running hot right now, trainer John Ortiz and jockey Reylu Gutierrez. He fell just a bit short in his last two races, but there is room based on back form for him to improve off those efforts. He regularly runs well at Churchill Downs, and has a good win on an off-track earlier in his career. He does have tables to turn on Durante from the Aristides last out, but between his ability to handle off going and the chance for an even sharper pace, he very well could.

Durante will not be the 33-1 shocker he was when he won the Aristides last out, but he has reason to turn in another good effort. He has tactical speed from an outside gate, which means he could get a good, clean tracking trip off the speed, and he regularly finds himself in a place to get the jump on the closers, in case the track plays kindly for forwardly placed runners. And, though he has yet to win a race on an off track, he has hit the board in four of seven attempts on wet footing.

Race 11 - Stephen Foster Stakes (G1), 1 ⅛ miles on the dirt - Mystik Dan, Mindframe

FanDuel odds: 3-1 and 7-2

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The major value in this race comes from opposing morning-line favorite Sierra Leone. He comes off a disappointing third-place finish at Fair Grounds, and as a closer, he is unlikely to get the pace setup to suit his running style, with a lack of one-way speed in the race. On the other hand, Mystik Dan (3-1) stands to get a much better setup. Though he rallied into a lively pace last out when winning the Blame Stakes (G3) over the local course, he has been able to win with a more modest setup as well, since he is a versatile sort who does not have to settle far back off the pace. He has a well-documented affinity for the Churchill Downs racing surface, and his Kentucky Derby win last year came on a wet track in Louisville. Mystik Dan comes into the Stephen Foster Stakes off of a pair of good efforts—and if he holds, or builds upon that recent form, he’ll be hard to catch in the lane.

Mindframe (7-2) is another who has proven form over a wet Churchill Downs track, as he comes off a victory in the local slop in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) on May 3. He should get a spot fairly close to the pace based both on running style and the fact that he stretches out from a one-turn race. The question about Mindframe is distance: his two starts this year so far suggest that he is a top extended one-turn horse, but he has yet to get to the winner’s circle in a two-turn stakes. Even so, he ran well at the Grade 1 level in both the 1 ¼-mile Belmont and the 1 ⅛-mile Haskell last year, running second behind Dornoch in both of those races. His pedigree suggests that it was no fluke, and if he can run to it, he can prove once and for all that he is the most distance-versatile horse at the top of racing this year.

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