5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Saturday 6/28/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates

Under 9.5 Runs (-120)

Not factoring in juice on the line, this is tied for the highest total of the day at 9.5 runs. What on Earth?

The New York Mets, presumably, would have to carry this number, but they've got a pitiful .585 OPS (29th in MLB) over the past 30 days against southpaws. Bailey Falter's 5.10 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is something to hold your nose around, but he's given up three runs or fewer in 9 of his last 10 starts.

Meanwhile, it's almost the same situation on the Pittsburgh Pirates' side. Pittsburgh has a .648 OPS versus righties in the past 30, and while Paul Blackburn has given up at least three runs in four of five outings, he's topped out at four. Blackburn's 4.84 SIERA is slightly better, and both of these sinker-oriented pitchers surrender fewer than 1.05 HR/9.

Both bullpens here also avoid MLB's bottom-10 SIERAs over the past month. The ERAs are ugly from both starters, but I can't side with a firestorm in these splits.

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox

Blue Jays Moneyline (-122)

With UFC 317 best bets on my brain, the Toronto Blue Jays simply have too many ways to get their proverbial hand raised today for this price.

They'll enjoy an advantage at starting pitcher with Chris Bassitt, whose resurgent campaign shows a 3.53 SIERA and a great job limiting hard contact (34.8% rate allowed). Meanwhile, Lucas Giolito toes the slab for the Boston Red Sox on the other side wielding a 4.14 SIERA with a hard-hit rate allowed (47.1%) that currently ranks in baseball's 7th percentile.

Toronto has the stronger offense in this right-handed split, too. They've mashed a .795 OPS (7th in MLB) over the past 30 days to Boston's .624 (29th). It's not even close.

The Jays also have the better and fresher bullpen -- and not just because of last night's 9-0 win. Over the past month, Toronto's reliever SIERA (3.62) is better than the Sox's (3.87).

With all these paths to victory, FanDuel bettors are still backing the Red Sox's run line. I didn't expect to fade the public to say the Blue Jays are better, but I am, and they are.

Alejandro Kirk to Record an RBI (+135)

Giolito's struggles should play right into the hands of Alejandro Kirk.

The portly framed catcher hits from the correct side of the dish to give Giolito fits. The right-hander has allowed a .367 wOBA and 40.7% hard-hit rate to same-handed bats like Kirk. Those numbers are only .300 and 26.0%, respectively, against lefties.

Meanwhile, Kirk has ripped the cover off the ball in these matchups with right-handed pitchers. He's sporting a 1.089 OPS, .267 ISO, and 52.6% (!) hard-hit rate against them in the last month -- or 66 plate appearances (PAs).

Projected to hit cleanup, our MLB player prop projections aren't that bullish on a Kirk round-tripper (0.10 HRs), but they expect a median total of 0.70 RBI in today's game. That should imply closer to -101 odds for one.

Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Angels

Over 9.0 Runs (-105)

If I'm falling into a trap after last night's 24-run bonanza, so be it.

These bullpens are tired after being a significant part of that, and they haven't been effective to begin matters. Both the Washington Nationals (4.37) and Los Angeles Angels (4.06) rank in baseball's bottom five for reliever SIERA over the past 30 days, and the starters aren't built to protect them tonight.

Both Michael Soroka and Kyle Hendricks have struggled this season. Washington's Soroka has coughed up 1.69 HR/9 this season entering MLB's fifth-best park for bombs. L.A.'s Hendricks hasn't been much better limiting the long ball (1.54 HR/9). They both sport ERAs north of 4.80 for a reason.

The Halos have been productive opposite righties in the past month (.736 OPS), and while Washington lags behind a bit (.690), their big bats like James Wood should be able to help opposite Hendricks. Give me the over.

Logan O'Hoppe to Hit a Home Run (+390)

This will be such a cool process win if it hits.

Logan O'Hoppe's counting stats over the past month against righties like Soroka are horrible. He's managed just a .436 OPS and .140 ISO. It sort of goes to show how long bad luck can infiltrate results for a hitter, though.

O'Hoppe's flyball (35.9%) and hard-hit (45.9%) are actually quite exceptional for the struggles. The catcher is making loud outs. Soroka can certainly help reverse that trend, per flyball (41.8%) and hard-hit (41.5%) rates that rank 45th percentile or worse across baseball.

These odds seem ridiculously short for someone with just three bombs in June. That raises another eyebrow.

Well, 13 of his 17 home runs this season have come against righties, which is why FDR projects O'Hoppe for 0.26 median homers in this matchup. That implies closer to +337 odds for one. Let's see if his fortune turns this evening.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.