3 Best Bets to Win the 2025 Stephen Foster Stakes

Key Takeaways:

• Mystik Dan looks to be in top form after a strong win in the Blame Stakes at Churchill Downs, which is the same course and distance as the Stephen Foster; his tactical speed and slop experience add to his appeal.
• Mindframe, the least experienced in the field, has shown graded-stakes quality and may still be improving; he has strong two-turn form and already owns a G1 win over a sloppy Churchill track.
• First Mission is a live dark horse with proven class, solid spacing between races, strong rail form, and a past Churchill slop win—making him dangerous if he repeats his success.

The $1 million Stephen Foster Stakes is one of the most important races of the year at Churchill Downs, and it happens Saturday, June 28. The Grade 1 race, run at 1 ⅛ miles on the dirt, is an automatic qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

A feature on the track’s calendar since 1982, and previously run as the Stephen Foster Handicap, it deserves all the attention it gets. After all, five winning horses have taken the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the same year: Black Tie Affair (1991), Awesome Again (1998), Saint Liam (2005), Blame (2010), and Gun Runner (2017). Four horses have won it en route to Horse of the Year honors, too: Black Tie Affair, Saint Liam, Curlin (2008), and Gun Runner.

The Stephen Foster is also an excellent betting race, especially in 2025, as so many of the top older dirt horses are entered. Though the race only drew a field of seven, quality outshines quantity. In short, it is a showcase of the top older horses on dirt.

Four of the entrants are already winners at the top level: 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Sierra Leone, 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, 2025 Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) winner Mindframe, and 2025 Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Hit Show. Skippylongstocking has been a fixture in top dirt routes for years, and First Mission is a multiple Grade 2 winner as well. Of the seven, the only one who is not proven against top stakes horses is Ashcroft.

These are the three best bets for the 2025 Stephen Foster Stakes.

1. Mystik Dan (2025 Stephen Foster Stakes odds: 3-1)

There was a legitimate question heading into the Lake Ouachita of whether Mystik Dan would ever regain the form that won him the Kentucky Derby. Though he didn’t win that ungraded race at Oaklawn—he battled hard and missed by just a nose to Grade 1 winner Saudi Crown, and even did so under new jockey Francisco Arrieta since jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. was in Kentucky riding Thorpedo Anna. Hernandez was back in the irons for the Kenny McPeek trainee May 31 for the Blame Stakes (G3)—his return to graded-stake company, and an acid test of whether his last-out form was an outlier or a harbinger of a nice four-year-old season.

It was like old times. Hernandez saved ground, got Mystik Dan through horses into the lane, and the son of Goldencents ran on well to win by 1 ¼ lengths over Antiquarian and the Grade 1-placed Post Time. And, he did it over the same course and distance as the Stephen Foster.

He’s already a winner over a wet Churchill track, and he’s got tactical speed. Of course, the waters get deeper in the Stephen Foster Stakes compared to the Blame Stakes with the likes of Sierra Leone, Mindframe, Hit Show, and more lining up. But, if he runs back to his last, then he is competitive, and if he moves forward third off the lay he’s even tougher.

2. Mindframe (2025 Stephen Foster Stakes odds: 7-2)

Though he only has six starts, making him the least experienced in the Stephen Foster Stakes field, he is the one horse in the field who may not have shown his best yet. He debuted last spring and went on to finish second behind Dornoch in both the Belmont and the Haskell (G1). The Todd Pletcher trainee went on the shelf after that, but came back at four and has won the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) and the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) already this year.

Of course, Mindframe has to prove he can win at the top level going two turns. Both of his graded-stakes wins have come at an extended one-turn trip—a mile at Gulfstream, and seven furlongs at Churchill Downs. However, he ran two strong efforts in Grade 1 company at 1 ¼ miles in the Belmont and 1 ⅛ miles in the Haskell. Being a Constitution son out of a Street Sense mare with both one- and two-turn class in the family, there is every reason to think the good efforts over long distances last year weren’t flukes, and that Mindframe can be formidable on the stretch out.

In terms of pace, he has tactical speed—and even though he is stretching out from one turn to two, he was able to stalk and pounce in his two-turn races last year as well. And, with rain in the forecast, the win in the Churchill Downs Stakes on a sloppy track last month means he should be able to handle the footing no matter how the weather comes up in Louisville on race day.

3. First Mission (2025 Stephen Foster Stakes odds: 4-1)

In a race where the proven Grade 1 winners are going to get the attention, it’s a good place to see whether any of the dark horse candidates have a chance, since they are likely to get ignored on the tote board. First Mission could be just that horse.

Though he tailed off last summer, a nice, long winter break and deliberate spacing between races this year has brought out the best in this 5-year-old for trainer Brad Cox. He returned with a third-place finish in the Razorback (G3) in February, beaten just a neck. About two months later, he was an emphatic winner in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2). He has gotten a similar break, about two months, between that outing and this one. Cox does well with runners coming off similar layoffs, and if First Mission can run back to those two races earlier this year, he fits right in with these top-quality opponents.

In terms of pace, he has the tactical speed to work a trip in this race, where some of his opponents show speed but none of them need it. He can send to the front, but is a little better from just off of it. And, even though he drew the fence, he has also won from the rail without leading at every call, and did so with jockey Luis Saez riding. Saez returns in the Stephen Foster.

The wet forecast also adds to the appeal of First Mission. Though he faltered in the mud in the Whitney (G1) last year, he ran perhaps the best race of his life last year at Churchill Downs when he won the Alysheba (G2) by four lengths over a sloppy track. He chased a lively pace, made a run, and drew off—meaning he can handle wet footing at Churchill specifically, as well as pass horses over such a surface.

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