Champions League Picks and Best Bets for This Week's Semifinal First Legs

By Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)

Sporting Life’s soccer expert Jake Osgathorpe takes you through the first leg semifinal clashes for this week's Champions League matchups.

Soccer odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change.

Champions League Betting Picks: UCL Semifinals Best Bets

PSG vs Bayern Munich

• Bayern Munich Over 1.5 Team Goals (-128)
• Joshua Kimmich to Be Carded (+290)
• Best bet – Michael Olise to Be Carded (+380)

PSG have cruised into the Champions League semifinals, dominating Chelsea and Liverpool 12-2 on aggregate, but Bayern Munich present a different level of test.

Vincent Kompany’s side are relentless going forward, scoring 38 goals in 12 UCL matches (3.17 per game) and hitting 2+ goals in 11 of 12. Across all competitions, they have scored 2+ goals in 46 of 49 games this season.

PSG have been vulnerable defensively at home in Europe, conceding multiple goals in four of seven, including when these sides met in the league phase of the Champions League.

As well as goals, this matchup should produce plenty of fouls given Bayern’s high press and the expected transition-heavy game. Referee Sandro Schärer averages 3.67 cards per UCL match, reinforcing a cards angle.

Bayern average 2.17 cards per game in this competition, and Joshua Kimmich stands out. He’s picked up seven cards this season, and PSG have seen an opposing central midfielder booked in nine of 14 UCL matches.

Michael Olise is another value play. He’s Bayern’s joint-most booked player (12 cards, 0.30 per 90) and will be up against the pace of Nuno Mendes, increasing his defensive workload.

Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal

• Julian Alvarez to Commit 2+ Fouls (+120)

Arsenal have hit a rough patch domestically, and a trip to Atlético Madrid won’t offer much relief. Expect a defensive approach from the Gunners, which should invite pressure.

That sets up well for Julián Álvarez in the fouls market. Leading Atlético’s press, he’s committed 2+ fouls in four straight UCL knockout games and averages 1.65 per 90.

With the intensity high, Álvarez 2+ Fouls looks like value.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.