Champions League Betting Picks for Wednesday 4/17/24: Can Real Madrid Eliminate Man City?

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
Champions League Betting Picks for Wednesday 4/17/24: Can Real Madrid Eliminate Man City?

With both of the first legs being draws, it's all to play for in the second legs of these two thrilling Champions League matchups.

When looking at the Champions League soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this match day?

Champions League Betting Picks: Tuesday 4/17/24

Real Madrid at Manchester City (3PM ET)

Real Madrid to Qualify for the Next Round (+240)

Last week, these two teams played a classic Champions League tie. It ended 3-3 after the dust settled, and that leaves everything to play for in this game.

With no away goals tiebreaker, it's truly like a whole new game heading into this match. We can draw some conclusions from how the first leg played out.

The game was high-scoring but actually featured just 1.5 total expected goals (xG), according to Manchester City barely edged it out with 0.8 to 0.7 for Real Madrid.

We know that Man City under Pep Guardiola like to play a possession based game. They had 61% possession in the first leg on the road, and we can expect that to be even higher at home this time.

This might play into the hands of Madrid. They have some excellent counter attacking players, including Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo. It will likely be their strategy to try to score on the break rather than to win the possession battle against City.

With how close the first leg was, I like the +250 odds with Madrid to advance. This gives us the opportunity to cash this bet if they win after extra time or on penalty kicks.

I think Madrid actually has a decent chance of getting through here, so I'll take the +250.

Arsenal at Bayern Munich (3PM ET)

Bayern Munich Moneyline (+140)

Like the first match, the first leg in this tie was a thrilling game. It also ended in a draw, 2-2, and sets up a great second leg.

Arsenal were fairly disappointing in a game where they should have had an edge. They only created 1.0 xG and allowed 1.9. It was a chance to pounce on Bayern Munich at home, and they didn't take advantage of it.

Now, they'll go to Munich's level, and both teams' league matches play a role going into this match. Bayern will no longer have to concern themselves with the Bundesliga as that was wrapped up by Bayer Leverkusen.

Meanwhile, Arsenal lost at home, a brutal blow to their title chances. This was just their third loss at home all season.

Bayern have the best xG differential per 90 minutes in Europe's big five leagues. They've lost the xG battle just twice all season.

I thought Arsenal had a good chance of winning in the first leg, but I don't see them winning this game away to Bayern. We're getting pretty good odds for one of the best teams in Europe to win at home. The +140 is too enticing to pass up here.

Player Props

Harry Kane to Score (+120): Kane scored a goal in last week's match, and he'll have a good chance to score again in this match.

Kane leads all Europe's big five leagues in goals with seven more than any other player. He is Bayern's penalty taker, adding to the chance that he will score.

Arsenal's defensive record has been great this season, but now they have conceded twice in back-to-back games. Both of those games were at home, as well, and now they will have to prevent Kane from scoring on the road.

Rodrygo to Score or Assist (+200): If we think Real Madrid can hit Man City on the counter attack, it's likely Rodrygo will be involved.

He scored a goal in last week's match and famously scored two in Madrid's 2022 semifinal victory over City. In La Liga, he averages 0.64 goals plus assists per 90 minutes this season.

Getting as good of a price on this one, I'll take the +200 on Rodrygo contributing to a goal.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.