Champions League Betting Picks for Tuesday 4/9/24: Can Arsenal Finally Knock Out Bayern?

We've made it to the first legs of the last eight of the Champions League. We should see some high-level soccer from this point forward

When looking at the Champions League soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this match day?

Champions League Betting Picks: Tuesday 4/9/24

Bayern Munich at Arsenal (3:00 PM EST)

Arsenal Moneyline (-140)

In the mid-2010s, Arsenal faced off against Bayern Munich three times in the knockout stages. All three times, the German team came out victorious. The last time was in 2017, and Bayern won both legs of the last 16 by the score of 5-1 -- a total demolition job.

Things have changed greatly since then. That was the last time Arsenal qualified for the Champions League until this season. They went through a down period but now have bounced back to be title contenders in England.

They appear to be playing Bayern at exactly the right time to avoid being knocked out by them again. Arsenal are currently on a stretch of winning 11 of their last 13 matches in all competitions.

Meanwhile, Bayern are on one of their worst runs in recent memory. They've lost their last two Bundesliga matches, including a meltdown against a mediocre Heidenheim side in which they blew a 2-0 lead in the second half.

An intriguing angle of this match is the underlying data for both clubs. Bayern rank first in expected goal (xG) differential per 90 minutes in Europe's big five leagues, according to FBRef.com. Arsenal are third in this metric and would have an edge on any other team left in the competition besides Bayern.

I still like Arsenal to win in this game at home. They've only failed to win one game at the Emirates since September. This Bayern team is in a bit of disarray and have been since the announcement that Thomas Tuchel would not return next season as manager.

Arsenal have been in great form and should get the win in this game.

Manchester City at Real Madrid (3:00 PM EST)

Over 2.5 Goals (-128)

The past two winners of the Champions League meet in the quarterfinals this year. They faced off in the semifinals in the last two seasons, and, obviously, each won one time.

Both clubs are in a decent position to win it again this season. Manchester City are the favorites at +170 while Real Madrid are the third-favorites at +600.

These teams certainly know how to score goals. City are fifth in Europe's big five leagues in goals in league matches while Madrid are seventh.

City haven't been particularly good at keeping clean sheets of late. They have just two in their last eight matches -- a fairly low number for an elite team. It's unlikely that they'll be able to keep a clean sheet at the Bernabeu.

In three of the four legs over the last two seasons, the game has gone over this total. In fact, there were at least four goals scored in those matches.

I see this one having both teams scoring potentially multiple times. These odds are nice on over 2.5 goals, and you can also get Over 3.5 Goals (+200) at 2-to-1 odds.

Player Props

Jude Bellingham to Score (+230): If we expect goals in this match, then we should like this price on Jude Bellingham to score.

Bellingham isn't quite scoring at the same rate he was to start the season. He's scored just three goals in 2024. To be fair, he did miss some time due to injury.

Bellingham excelled playing in his role behind two forwards and driving from midfield. If Manchester City attempt to mark him out of the game with Rodri, that's a matchup that Bellingham can win through his athleticism.

Getting better than 2-to-1 odds on him to score is definitely enticing.

Harry Kane to Have 1+ Shots in Each Half (-140): Harry Kane will make his return to North London to face Arsenal, a bitter rival of his former Tottenham club.

Kane has been excellent in his first season with Bayern. He leads Europe's big five leagues with 32 goals. He also averages the most shots per game at 4.6.

He'll likely hear the boos at the Emirates given his connection to Tottenham. That likely won't sway things too much; he usually clears this number rather easily with high shot volume.

Looking for more soccer betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the soccer odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.