Champions League Betting Picks for Tuesday 4/16/24: Will Barcelona Finish Off PSG?

Nicholas Vazquez•@nickvaz

13d

The first legs of the Champions League last week were all compelling, and not one is decided heading into the second legs.

When looking at the Champions League soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this match day?

All stats via FBRef.com, unless otherwise stated.

Champions League Betting Picks: Tuesday 4/16/24

Paris St. Germain at Barcelona (3PM ET)

Barcelona Moneyline (+115)

Wednesday's first leg was a thrilling affair that finished 3-2 for Barcelona on the road. With away goals no longer being the tiebreaker, that makes this encounter even closer than it would have been.

In that match, we liked Barcelona because they had a better expected goal (xG) differential -- per FBRef -- while playing in a tougher league, and they were getting nice odds. This time at home, they are the favorites.

Even though PSG have good xG numbers, they aren't quite as good as Barca's. That played out in the first leg, with Barcelona winning the xG battle 1.9-1.2.

Barca, unlike PSG, had a match over the weekend. They rested key players like Ilkay Gundogan and Frenkie De Jong while also getting Pedri more playing time. If they can get this midfield trio on the pitch together for at least 60 minutes on Tuesday, they have a great chance of winning again.

Barcelona are on a 13-match unbeaten run, which includes wins over Champions League-level competition in Atletico Madrid and Napoli as well as their victory in the first leg. They may be underrated slightly because they aren't going to win La Liga this season, but they are definitely a formidable side.

After Barcelona's performance away from home, you could argue that Barcelona should be better than even money here. In my eyes, getting them at +115 is a nice value.

Atletico Madrid at Dortmund (3PM ET)

Under 2.5 Goals (+130)

We're going back to the well on this one, even though it lost in the first leg. It looked like this bet was dead in the water early on with two quick goals. Then, the score held at 2-0 until Dortmund scored in the 81st minute.

Now, those two goals for Atletico Madrid came off of huge errors from Dortmund. We wouldn't expect things like that to continue from an experienced team like Dortmund.

Even with those great chances, Atletico accumulated just 2.2 xG, and the game saw only 3.1 xG total. There were also only 26 total shots in the game.

We are getting better odds than what the under closed at in the last match. There shouldn't be much that has fundamentally changed from last week's meeting.

The one thing that is different is the location of the match, which could benefit the under. Atletico tend to play very conservatively away from home. In 15 La Liga away matches this season, they have just 22 goals and 19.1 xG, compared to 37 goals and 33.7 xG in 16 home matches.

Carrying the lead into this tie gives Atleti more incentive to play that same, conservative style. They are likely to try to hold out without conceding a goal for as long as possible.

Since last week's game nearly went under this total, I like betting on this second leg to stay under at the +130 odds.

Player Props

Julian Brandt Over 3 Shots (+120): Julian Brandt didn't start the game on Wednesday but did come in for the second half. Brandt is an attacking midfielder and did his best to try to get his team back in the game. He had three shots in the 45 minutes he played.

With Dortmund trailing, we should see Brandt in the starting lineup. It's nice to get these odds on something that happened in a half, because if Brandt reaches even just 60 minutes, he should clear this number.

Ilkay Gundogan to Assist (+410): We're getting a great number on Gundogan to create a goal.

As I laid out above, I am expecting Barcelona to play well in this game, and they should have the advantage in midfield over PSG. Gundogan has four assists in eight Champions League starts this season.

It's possible that Gundogan can get his assist from a set piece. He is the main corner taker for Barcelona, and they scored from a corner against PSG last week.

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