Champions League Betting Picks for Wednesday 4/10/24: Can Barca Beat PSG on the Road?

Wednesday sees two more first legs kick off in the quarterfinals for the Champions League, and if they're anything like Tuesday's games, we are in for a real treat.

When looking at the Champions League soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this match day?

Champions League Betting Picks: Wednesday 4/10/24

Dortmund at Atletico Madrid (3PM ET )

Under 2.5 Goals (-118)

While this matchup may not receive the same fanfare as the other three, it is still between two huge clubs who are used to going deep in this competition.

The way Atletico Madrid has been successful in this competition under Diego Simeone is by keeping things tight defensively. It hasn't been as successful this season, but we know they will at least try to keep things tight.

Dortmund are normally associated with a fast-paced, counter-attacking style. This year, they are more defensively responsible. They've conceded the second-fewest goals in the Bundesliga.

Atletico have allowed the lowest expected goals (xG) per shot in La Liga, according to WhoScored.com. This means that the chances they allow don't have a high probability of going in. When they do allow the shots, Jan Oblak is one of the best goalkeepers in Europe, and deals with most of them.

Both of Dortmund's games in the Round of 16 had just two goals total in them against normally high-scoring PSV Eindhoven. They also recently kept a clean sheet against Bayern Munich. They should be able to limit an Atletico attack that is only fourth in La Liga in both goals and xG.

We saw lots of goals in the first legs of the games on Tuesday. That's not Simeone's style, so I'd expect a more cautious approach to this match.

Barcelona at Paris St. Germain (3PM ET)

Barcelona Moneyline (+270)

The marquee match of the day is between Barcelona and Paris St. Germain. This could be a fantastic match just like we saw on Tuesday.

PSG has the reputation for choking in the Round of 16, but handled Real Sociedad fairly easily across the two legs. They have a 10-point lead at the top of Ligue 1, and are clearly the best side in France by every metric.

Barcelona are second in La Liga, but a distant second behind Real Madrid. They took care of business easily against Napoli in the second leg last round, winning 4-0 at home.

Despite being second, Barca have the best xG differential in Spain's top flight. They also rank fifth in Europe's big five leagues -- ahead of PSG despite playing the tougher league.

They've lost a key midfielder in Gavi, but they've managed to play well with the depth that they have. If they are able to get Pedri and Frenkie De Jong back to play alongside Ilkay Gundogan in the midfield, that is one of best midfield trios in Europe.

We can say PSG should be favored for this home match, but I believe the odds should be closer. Getting nearly 3/1 odds on Barcelona is too good of a price I think, because the case could be made that they are the better team.

Player Props

Raphinha to Score or Assist (+180): Barcelona's Raphinha is certainly not the biggest star on the team, but he's very good at contributing to goals.

He has 12 goals plus assists in La Liga in 13 starts and 22 total appearances. In league matches, he averages 1.02 goal contributions per 90 minutes.

With the odds of +180, I like this bet on him scoring or assisting on a goal in this match.

Atletico Goalkeeper to Make 3 Saves (-115): This is written on FanDuel Sportsbook, but we have every expectation that this will be Jan Oblak in goal for Atletico.

Oblak faces 3.93 shots on target per game in league matches. That should go up against a team like Dortmund who can attack better than the average La Liga team.

As mentioned above, Atletico will give up low-danger shots. That should allow Oblak to make at least three saves in this match, so I'd lay the -115 here.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.