Celtics vs. Cavaliers: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 4

After their bounce-back 106-93 victory in Game 3, the Boston Celtics have a 2-1 lead over the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The Celtics now have -10000 odds to win the series and -600 odds to win the Eastern Conference, according to the NBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Cavaliers are +2500 to win the series and +5500 to win the East.

Let's take a look at the odds for Game 4 and break down tonight's matchup.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Celtics-Cavaliers Betting Odds

Date and Time: Monday, May 13th at 7:00 p.m. ET

Spread: Celtics -9 (-110)

Total: 207.5

Moneyline:

• Celtics: -390
• Cavaliers: +310

Celtics vs. Cavaliers Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

• Celtics:
  • nERD: 80.8 (1st)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 122.0 (1st)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 111.2 (2nd)
  • Pace: 97.7 (19th)
  • Against-the-Spread Record: 41-36-5
• Cavaliers:
  • nERD: 58.8 (10th)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 114.6 (18th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 112.6 (7th)
  • Pace: 97.5 (24th)
  • Against-the-Spread Record: 39-42-1

Celtics vs. Cavaliers Best Bet

Celtics -9 (-110)

The Celtics seem to rotate between being the most dominant team in the NBA and a team that gets blown out on their home court by lesser opposition.

Their 10-point loss to the Miami Heat in Game 2 of the first round and their 24-point loss to the Cavaliers in Game 2 of this series have created an aura of vulnerability around this Boston team. While those performances are difficult to explain and create uncertainty around Boston's outlook on a game-by-game basis, they shouldn't outweigh the other part of the picture. In the Celtics' other six playoff games, they are undefeated with an average win margin of 21 points.

This isn't an even split. Three out of every four playoff games, the Celtics have won by at least 13 points. Their Game 2 losses would be more concerning if they were narrowly winning their other games, but they are blowing teams out. In 75% of their playoff games this postseason, they have been exactly who many expected them to be after their excellent regular season.

Even including Boston's horrendous shooting performance from three in Game 2 (8-35, 22.9%), the Cavaliers' defense hasn't really slowed the Celtics' offense. For the series, they are shooting 47.2% from the field and 38.3% from behind the arc. That's down slightly, but not significantly, from their regular season averages of 48.7% and 38.8%. Even with Kristaps Porzingis unavailable and Derrick White cooling off in Games 2 and 3 (7-24 from the field and 4-16 from three), Boston's offense has remained near their regular season efficiency.

Boston led the league in adjusted offense rating (122.0) and adjusted net rating (+10.8) during the regular season. Outside of that pair of Game 2 defeats, they have brought that level of dominance to the postseason.

The other advantage the Celtics have in this series is the ability to manage their stars' minutes. Jayson Tatum played 42 minutes in Game 3 on Saturday, his first time playing at least 40 minutes since Game 3 against Miami. He is averaging 38.1 minutes per game this postseason, and no other player on the Celtics is averaging more than 36.0.

Cleveland doesn't have this advantage. They simply can't afford for Donovan Mitchell to be off the court. His plus/minus in this series sits at +5.7, while every other Cavalier (min. two games played) has a negative plus/minus. Mitchell, who is listed as questionable for Game 4 with a calf strain, is averaging 41.2 minutes played over his last five games and has had just one day of rest in between each one.

The Game 2 defeats were concerning, but overall, the Celtics have been dominant in these playoffs. With Mitchell continuing to deal with a calf strain entering his sixth game in 10 days, I like Boston to cover in Game 4.

Celtics vs. Cavaliers Prop Bet

Derrick White Over 15.5 Points (-122)

White's white-hot run came to a halt in Games 2 and 3. After recording 25+ points in three consecutive games, White scored 10 in Game 2 and 12 in Game 3. While some regression was coming, the pendulum swung a bit far back in the opposite direction.

In the regular season, White averaged 15.2 points per game while playing 32.6 minutes per game. In the playoffs, he is averaging 19.9 points per game while playing 33.7 minutes per contest.

White has scored at least 16 points in five of his eight games this playoffs. He is averaging 9.0 three-point attempts per game, up from 6.8 per game in the regular season. He has attempted at least eight threes in six of eight games this postseason.

If you want to focus entirely on the three ball, you can also consider Derrick White over 3.5 Made Threes (+158). He is averaging 4.0 makes per game this postseason.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.