Calvin Ridley to Titans: 2024 Receiving and Touchdown Props Analysis

In a somewhat surprising move, Calvin Ridley elected to sign with the Tennessee Titans in free agency this offseason. Ridley spent one season with the Jacksonville Jaguars before securing a massive four-year, $92 million contract to remain in the AFC South.

Under new head coach Brian Callahan, the Titans have a new-look offense that is placing a ton of confidence in second-year quarterback Will Levis.

Upon joining a new team and having a new quarterback targeting him, what should we expect from Ridley for the 2024-25 NFL season?

Calvin Ridley 2024 Player Props

By taking an early look at the Calvin Ridley 2024-2025 Regular Season Specials market on FanDuel Sportsbook, we can get a glimpse of how he's expected to perform next season.

In his lone year with the Jaguars, Ridley tallied 76 receptions for 1,016 yards and eight touchdowns. Those were the second-best marks of his career in receptions and receiving yards.

Ridley has achieved six-plus receiving touchdowns in four of his first five seasons in the NFL while he has eclipsed 1,000-plus receiving yards in only two of them.

Calvin Ridley's Fit in Tennessee

Due to a one-year suspension that sidelined him for the 2022 campaign, this offseason was the first time Ridley had a chance to test free agency at 29 years old. The former first-round pick experienced his best season in 2020 with the Atlanta Falcons when he logged 90 receptions, 1,374 yards, and nine touchdowns.

After catching passes from Trevor Lawrence a season ago, Ridley will now be targeted by an even more inexperienced signal-caller with Levis. Levis finished with 1,808 passing yards, eight passing touchdowns, and four interceptions while completing 58.4% of his attempts in nine starts as a rookie in 2023.

While Ridley experienced an up-and-down year with the Jaguars last year, he still led the team in air yards market share (38.2%) and average depth of target (13.8), via NextGenStats. The veteran wideout also finished with the second-highest target share (22.5%) and third-most yards per route run (1.69).

During his short tenure with the Jaguars, Ridley was deployed as more of a vertical threat -- partly due to necessity because of injuries -- in the passing attack. Given the fact that Levis posted an average depth of target of 10.5 last season, Ridley could see a similar role in Tennessee.

Besides having a forgettable 9.9% sack rate, Levis also notched a -3.2% completion percentage over expected in his nine starts. Ridley also goes from having a quarterback in Lawrence who earned a 48.6% passing success rate in 2023 compared to a 40.6% passing success rate from Levis.

Following a year where he shared the field with Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones, Ridley will now form a solid receiving duo with DeAndre Hopkins. Even with inconsistent quarterback play and the fact he was 31 years old, Hopkins managed to record 75 receptions, 1,057 yards, and seven touchdowns in 2023 in his debut season with the Titans.

Callahan comes from the Cincinnati Bengals, so the Titans may want to have Ridley and Hopkins do their best Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins impressions. As tough as that may be, Ridley's production will also be dependent on the development of Levis in a new offense.

Calvin Ridley Consensus 2024 Projections

Upon joining the Titans, DraftSharks is projecting Ridley to finish with 76.5 receptions on 130.9 targets for 1,069.3 yards and 5.61 touchdowns.

Comparatively, DraftSharks has Hopkins posting 85 receptions on 136 targets for 1,057.4 yards and 7.14 touchdowns.

ESPN's Mike Clay is also expecting Ridley to achieve his third 1,000-yard campaign, projecting him for 77 receptions on 132 targets for 1,042 yards and seven touchdowns.

Based on the initial projections, there isn't value in taking Ridley to record six receiving touchdowns at -175 odds. Meanwhile, there is value in backing Ridley to register 1,000-plus receiving yards at +180 odds.

Assuming the vast majority of the targets are funneled to Hopkins and Ridley, there is room for both of them to succeed. Once again, the numbers that Ridley produces are going to be largely dependent on whether or not Levis makes strides in his game during his sophomore campaign.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.